Just observed an interesting situation on Polymarket: Traders are pricing in about a 99% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates stable during this cycle. That’s a strong signal for the market. What fascinates me is the logic behind it — most assume that the current US labor market data will lead the Fed to exercise caution rather than take aggressive steps. If the labor market data remains solid, the central bank will likely see no reason to change monetary policy. Essentially, it’s a bet that economic conditions are stable enough to avoid overreacting. It’s interesting to see how much the consensus among market participants has converged — hardly anyone expects major surprises from the Fed anymore.