I just noticed something interesting about what's happening in the Middle East these days. The United States is moving pieces quite seriously: the State Department is evacuating U.S. citizens from the region, while the Pentagon is deploying more personnel for military intelligence operations. The thing is, this goes beyond what was initially planned.

Central Command is requesting that support for operations be extended to about 100 days, when the original plan was only four weeks. In other words, we're talking about a much more serious escalation than initially announced. The deployment of military intelligence seems to be key in this strategy.

But here’s the interesting part: while the United States intensifies its moves, other Western countries are not keeping the same pace. The UK, France, and Germany have been quite cautious. British Prime Minister Starmer was clear: British planes will only participate in defensive actions, nothing offensive. France deployed the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, but also with a defensive focus. Germany, for its part, has constitutional limitations that heavily restrict its involvement.

What catches my attention is that prediction markets are showing that the probability of these countries joining direct attacks against Iran is decreasing. That is, while U.S. military intelligence prepares for longer operations, the international coalition seems to be fracturing. Each country is weighing its own interests and risks, and most are choosing caution over escalation.