I noticed an interesting trend in recent macro data — U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter was not impressive at all. Instead of the expected three percent growth, it only reached 1.4% annually. A serious slowdown, to be honest.

What’s the matter? First, the government shutdown had an impact — it always hits activity. Second, consumers noticeably reduced their spending, which is uncharacteristic for the American economy. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened and reached a five-month high. It turns out that imports are higher while domestic consumption is lower — not the healthiest sign.

Politicians, of course, have already started looking for scapegoats. Trump directly pointed out on social media that the two percentage point loss is a result of the government shutdown, and is now actively opposing further shutdowns and advocating for lower interest rates. The logic is clear, although the U.S. GDP is declining for multiple reasons at once.

But here’s what’s interesting — despite this weakness in the fourth quarter, forecasts for 2026 remain quite optimistic. They expect that tax incentives and investments in artificial intelligence will give a new boost. Let’s see if they can restore the growth pace.