I’m paying close attention to Bitcoin’s movements, perhaps because the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike decision is getting closer. It is currently trading around $78,000, but there’s a high likelihood it will be shaken by a range of $68,000 to $80,000 from here.

Looking at the futures market, the probability of keeping rates unchanged this month is expected to be 99%, and next month it is expected to be 97%. However, if FRB issues hawkish signals, the possibility that the rate cuts in 2026 will be limited could come into view. If that happens, liquidity could be squeezed, and a scenario in which Bitcoin falls as low as $68,000 could also be considered.

On the other hand, if there’s a dovish surprise regarding inflation control, there’s also a very real chance of a move to test the upside toward $80,000. The Fear and Greed Index is neutral for now, but market sentiment could change dramatically depending on what the interest-rate decision contains. Especially if institutional investors shift into a risk-avoidance mode, the impact could spread beyond Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies as well, so it’s necessary to keep an eye on altcoins too. Uncertainty surrounding Mr. Kevin Warsh’s policy stance is also one of the factors shaking the market. The cryptocurrency market during a rate-hike phase is hard to predict, but we can’t take our eyes off the price movements over the next few weeks.