Wosh hearings send hawkish signals, gold prices face short-term pressure

Gold Ten Futures Special Commentary by Everbright Futures: Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated and weakened; after the market opened today, the foreign gold price rebounded somewhat, with an increase of about 0.45% as of the time of writing, and market sentiment remains volatile.
1. On the policy front, last night’s Senate nomination hearing for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Wosh featured remarks that exerted some pressure on gold prices. Wosh stated that he would “commit to ensuring that the implementation of monetary policy remains strictly independent,” emphasizing that interest rate decisions “must be strictly independent of political considerations,” and pointed out that Trump has never asked him to promise to cut rates. The market interpreted this as a hawkish signal, combined with his call for the Fed to adopt “a new inflation framework and communication approach,” further reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will not shift to easing in the short term, thus putting pressure on gold.
2. Geopolitically, a dramatic reversal occurred. Earlier in the day, Trump publicly stated he did not intend to extend the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran that expired on the evening of the 22nd, and threatened to resume bombing Iran after the ceasefire expires, triggering risk aversion in the market. However, a few hours later, Trump announced on social media that, at the request of Pakistan, he agreed to extend the ceasefire, awaiting Iran’s submission of negotiation proposals, while instructing US forces to continue maritime blockade and maintain combat readiness. This series of conflicting statements caused market sentiment to swing back and forth.
3. Overall, the blockage of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, coupled with the persistent tightening expectations of the Fed, becoming the core factors suppressing gold prices. US-Iran negotiations have been oscillating, increasing short-term market divergence. Before negotiations clarify, traders are advised to control positions and wait for confirmation of direction; however, given the current tendency of the US to favor negotiation solutions, traders may also consider buying on dips amid volatility.