#布伦特原油持续走强

Today, after a sharp drop in the earlier period, international oil prices have rebounded strongly. By the end of the trading session on the day, the electronic trading price of U.S. WTI May crude oil futures was $86.33 per barrel, up $3.74 from the previous trading day, a gain of 4.53%; the London Brent crude oil futures quoted for delivery in June closed at $94.37 per barrel, up $2.42, a gain of 2.63%. However, this rebound did not fully make up for the earlier losses; last week, international oil prices fell nearly 9% in a single day due to market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.

Factors driving the oil price rebound

(I) The repeated nature of geopolitical tensions

In recent times, the severe fluctuations in international oil prices are still primarily driven by uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Previously, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement. The risk of a disruption to crude oil supply that the market was worried about was temporarily alleviated. Combined with news that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation, international oil prices plunged sharply. However, the ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22, and the market has doubts about how the situation will develop next. Once the ceasefire agreement cannot be extended, regional conflicts may escalate again, and the safety of the Strait of Hormuz—which is a key channel responsible for transporting about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil—will again be threatened. The risk premium for crude oil supply will rise and push oil prices higher again. This repeated nature of geopolitical tensions causes market sentiment to swing between “fears of supply disruptions” and “expectations of diplomatic easing,” thereby triggering large fluctuations in oil prices.

(II) Short-term speculation by funds

The international crude oil market has long been an important arena for speculative capital. After oil prices dropped sharply, some speculative funds believed prices were at a stage low and began buying at discounted prices, driving the rebound. At the same time, uncertainty in the geopolitical situation also provides room for speculation by funds. They frequently take long and short positions based on their interpretation and expectations of the situation, further increasing oil price volatility.

Outlook for the future oil price trend

(I) In the short term, there is still upward momentum

In the short term, international oil prices still have some upward momentum. On the one hand, the development of the situation after the expiration of the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement is crucial. If conflicts escalate again, the risk of crude oil supply will rise sharply, and oil prices are expected to move higher further. On the other hand, concerns about refined product supply are difficult to ease in the short term, especially against the backdrop of global demand gradually recovering. The tight refined product supply situation may persist and will provide support for oil prices. In addition, continued speculation by funds may also cause oil prices to rise with fluctuations in the short term.

(II) In the medium term, downward pressure remains

In the medium term, international oil prices face relatively large downward pressure. First, the pace of global economic recovery has slowed, and in its April latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth; weakness on the demand side will suppress oil prices. Second, OPEC+ has exited the voluntary production cut mechanism for two consecutive months, with average daily production increases of 206,000 barrels from 4 to 5; U.S. shale oil production is also steadily rebounding. In addition, as various countries continue to release strategic petroleum reserves, global crude oil supply will gradually become looser, and changes in supply and demand will weaken the upward momentum of oil prices. Finally, the substitution effect of new energy is increasingly evident: more and more consumers choose electric vehicles, so the growth rate of crude oil demand will decline somewhat, which will also have a negative impact on the medium-term oil price outlook.