I just reviewed the movements of palm oil, and things have been quite volatile these days. With oil prices more stable, the 60-day moving average is holding back declines, so I don’t expect a major crash in the coming days. The May contract is already entering delivery zone, and the spot market has plenty of supply, which prevents any strong rally. In Guangdong, grade 24 dropped 10 yuan to 9,310, soybeans rose 50 to 8,750, and rapeseed fell 10 to 9,900.

Regarding soybean meal, rising crude prices are pushing up vegetable oils, which increases import costs. Here’s the important part: from April onward, imported soybeans will gradually recover. They estimate shipments of 11.5 million tons in May and 11 million in June, so supply pressure will be strong. My recommendation is to sell on rebounds, not to trust the bounces.

Corn is interesting because stocks at northern ports remain low compared to last year, supporting prices. But government reserve sales and the supply of wheat and rice limit upside potential. Demand is divided: forage demand weakens due to declines in livestock, but industrial processing remains strong. Short-term fluctuations at high levels but not much room to rise further. I am still observing.

Live pigs have risen quite a bit recently, but I believe it’s just a technical correction, not a trend reversal. There is deliberate reduction of supply by large companies, new fattening cycles are entering, and central reserve purchases are ongoing, but in the spot market, the increase is minimal, with the national average rising only 0.07 yuan per kilogram. The supply/demand ratio hasn’t changed. Selling on rebounds is the sensible move.

Eggs are in a transition phase. Expensive corn and soybean meal increase breeding costs; feed costs have reached 3.5 yuan per kilogram of eggs. But supply pressure is easing marginally; the worst may be over. The logic is that costs support the floor, supply is low, demand is rising, so I expect a slight upward trend. The problem is that there’s a lot of stock accumulated, so the upward potential will be limited. Buying when cheap is the play.