Lately, I’ve noticed that conversations in crypto are really changing. Everyone talks about halving and four-year cycles, but in reality, the true driver of Bitcoin might be completely different.

According to what I read, it seems that Bitcoin’s price follows the global economy much more than its internal cycles. When there’s liquidity and the economy is growing, risky assets like Bitcoin perform well. But when money tightens and the economy slows down, the crypto bull run struggles to take off, regardless of positive news.

Here’s the interesting point: the last three global economic cycles lasted about four years each, and they perfectly coincided with Bitcoin’s highs and lows. It’s not a coincidence; it’s correlation. When the economy hit its peak, Bitcoin also hit its peak. When it slowed down, Bitcoin also declined.

Now, the problem is that over the past three years, macro indicators show a slowing economy. This explains why we haven’t seen the dramatic boom we expected, even with Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of big players. The macro picture didn’t allow it.

There’s an important detail: the US government extended the debt cycle by about a year and a half after the COVID rate cuts. If this prolonged the economic cycle, then the next crypto bull run might come later than usual. It’s not guaranteed that the four-year cycle will stay perfect.

On another note, I look at the Truflation index, which is a more up-to-date inflation indicator compared to official data. It has fallen to around 1.21%, meaning the economy is cooling down. When inflation drops, central banks usually make borrowing easier, the government stops cutting spending, and real yields decline. Theoretically, these are positive conditions for Bitcoin.

But here’s the catch: these positive effects really only start when the economy begins to grow again after the slowdown. So, when the next bull run will arrive depends on the timing of the economic recovery, not just the halving calendar. If the economy remains stagnant longer, the crypto bull run could also be delayed. This is the real factor to watch, in my opinion.