Last night I looked again at the curve of stablecoin supply, and it is indeed increasing, but I no longer dare to firmly say "money is coming = a rally is coming." Whether it's ETFs or OTC, many times it's just a change in the pathway: minting coins first, then entering the exchange, or first doing market making pools... missing a step in between, and the results are completely different. To put it plainly, the correlation is too easy to deceive the eye.

In the past two days, the community has been watching extreme funding rates, each arguing whether it's a reversal or just more bubble squeezing. I used to be quite stubborn, "I only look at on-chain data," but I now have to admit: on-chain can show footprints, but it can't reveal when emotions hit the brakes. For now, keep watching addresses, and stop telling yourself stories.