Bank of Japan "Holding Steady"? The real signal is: rate hikes are just a matter of time.

The latest trend is very clear: multiple sources of information consistently indicate that the Bank of Japan is highly unlikely to raise interest rates next week.
But the focus has never been on "whether to raise rates," but on—why not—and when to do so.
The core logic for remaining unchanged in the short term is that geopolitical risks suppress the decision-making pace.
The situation in the Middle East remains tense, especially with the uncertain prospects of negotiations between the United States and Iran:
Global risk asset volatility is intensifying.
There is significant uncertainty about Japan's economic and inflation trajectory.
In this environment, rashly raising interest rates = actively amplifying risks.
Market expectations have already priced in "no rate hike."
The current market almost unanimously bets: interest rates will remain unchanged this month.
If rates are suddenly raised at this point, it could trigger:
Sharp exchange rate fluctuations,
Capital market mismatches, and shocks.
Therefore, the Bank of Japan prefers to:
Follow expectations rather than create surprises.