4.20 ETH Market Analysis

I. Last Week's Market Review
Last week, ETH was fully dominated by bearishness throughout. The price action was "rally to 2464 → pull back below 2400 → probe the low at 2251," with no effective rebound; the moving averages are aligned to the downside, and the RSI has become “oversold and losing momentum,” declining with sell-off volume increasing while upward moves come with lower volume, confirming that the bearish trend remains effective.
II. Current vs. Last Week's Core Comparison
Trend: Last week’s active selloff → today’s range-bound consolidation at lows, with bearish momentum weakening (weak formation of a bottom)
Levels: Resistance shifts down from 2400-2430 to 2280-2290; support shifts down from 2300-2350 to 2250-2260
Signals: RSI turns up from low levels, moving averages converge, indicating demand for a short-term rebound; market sentiment shifts from panic to watching
Volatility: Wide-range oscillation last week → today’s narrow-range contraction in volume, with an increased probability of a breakout/turning point
III. Practical Trading Plan
Trading Direction: Mainly go long at lows, with rebound pullbacks to go short as a secondary approach; pull back first, then rebound—upward probability is higher
Entry / Exit:
Low long: Enter at 2255-2265, stop loss below 2240, take profit at 2280-2290 and 2310-2320
High short (aggressive): Enter at 2290-2300, stop loss above 2310, take profit at 2265-2270
Position Management: Per-trade ≤5%; split low longs into 2 batches; high shorts ≤2% for trial; take profit in half to lock in gains, and do not hold through the position with the stop loss hit
IV. Today's Price Action Outlook
Core: Upward probability > downward probability; first pull back to 2250-2265 to confirm support, then rebound
Extreme case: If it breaks below 2240, stand by; if it breaks above 2310, add more long positions
V. Trading Summary
Low long 2255-2265, high short 2290-2300. Trade with light positioning and use stop losses; prioritize capturing the rebound opportunity.