All the bad news is out now. Every rebound is just emotional trading, and the foundation is extremely weak.

Let me lay out the current situation clearly:

1. Four real, hard-hitting bearish factors (all pressuring down)

1) The Federal Reserve is completely hawkish, and basically no rate cuts within half a year (the biggest bearish factor)
With U.S. Treasury yields at 5%+ in risk-free returns, crypto has zero interest and high volatility—so funds naturally run outward
Market pricing: almost no cuts in June; the earliest possible one would be in September
Liquidity is tightening; crypto is the market that depends most on “liquidity being pumped.” Without that, it’s hard to sustain a long-term bull run

2) U.S. stocks rising ≠ crypto can rise with them; the logic is completely different
Stocks are trading on: explosive AI earnings + cooling tensions in the Middle East
Crypto has no earnings—only speculation about liquidity being injected
Right now, the reason U.S. stocks are up is AI fundamentals, not the Fed easing liquidity—so capital won’t spill over into the crypto market
Once U.S. stocks pull back, crypto will fall twice as hard as the stocks

3) Massive leverage contracts at high levels—once it drops, it triggers a chain of liquidations
Now, crypto’s rebound is being propped up entirely by short positions closing
As soon as prices dip a little, long positions get widely liquidated with stop-hunts (needle-like intrusions), and history has repeated this countless times

4) Regulatory + quantum security bearish news has been coming out heavily and recently
The U.S. SEC continues to crack down, and the Ethereum ETF has been delayed and still hasn’t been finalized
Google’s latest: a quantum computer can crack BTC private keys in 9 minutes—an emotional “nuclear bomb”

2. Why is it still going up now?

It’s only driven by 2 short-term sentiments—completely not sustainable

• Middle East oil prices plunge → inflation cools down → the market bets that rate cuts will happen sooner or later
• BTC spot ETF has recorded small net inflows for several consecutive days, providing short-term support

Short positions with large head positions have already been set up