I'm not very good at guessing the macro narrative, but recently I've seen everyone equate "increase in stablecoin supply" and "ETF net inflow" directly with "off-exchange funds entering the market = immediate price surge." I want to pour a bit of cold water on that... correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins might just be due to repositioning, market making, or arbitrage needs, or it could be that people have minted coins and are just waiting for opportunities, so the short-term price movement isn't that straightforward.

Also, these days, large on-chain transfers and sudden movements in exchange hot and cold wallets are often interpreted as "smart money coming in," but honestly, many of these are internal transfers, risk control migrations, OTC settlements, or even just staged shows for you. I still stick to my old habit: first, clearly outline the reproducible path—where the funds come from, where they go, and whether there are follow-up actions; if I don’t understand it, I treat it as noise. I’d rather miss out on some opportunities than become emotional fuel. That’s all for now.