I just saw a video where some well known analyst (I will not mention the name) was comparing different times in Bitcoin history to the recent Bitcoin market situation.


He was using tools that I think are illusory, like lower highs, RSI and other stuff that doesn't work really.
Plus he was relying on his pattern recognition skills that in my opinion are very subjective.
Can we use math and science to do a systematic comparison with previous points in the cycle? Yes, and here how it is done.
This is slightly different from previous charts because it is using a 3-Months MA vs 1 year. But similar results.
Characteristics (3-Month MA):
All 92 points are BELOW the power law (undervalued)
n range: [-27.81, 1.84] - wide spread of local growth rates
dn/dt range: [0.032, 0.052] - all positive, stabilizing/bottoming
Mean: n = -5.07 ± 7.14, dn/dt = 0.042 ± 0.006
What This Tells Us:
These yellow squares represent Bitcoin's "accumulation zones" throughout history:
Declining but stabilizing - negative n (price falling at 3-month scale) but positive dn/dt (rate of decline slowing)
Classic bottoming pattern - this dynamic signature appears repeatedly at cycle lows and consolidation phases
Undervalued context - all 92 points occurred when Bitcoin was trading below its power law trend
Historical Periods Represented:
Early Bitcoin (2011-2013):
December 2011: $2.85-3.25
June 2012: $6.29-6.67
January 2013: $15.50
2015 Bear Bottom:
January-April 2015: $227-294 (multiple clusters)
Classic accumulation zone
Various Consolidation Phases:
Scattered throughout 2016-2020
Post-2022 bear market recovery
Recent 2026
Current State Context:
With current n = -18.08 and dn/dt = 0.040, the system is in the BEAR quadrant of phase space but with stabilizing dynamics (positive dn/dt).
92 historical precedents show this is a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's lifecycle - periods of undervaluation where short-term decline is slowing, often preceding recovery phases.
This is textbook dynamical similarity - finding when Bitcoin exhibited the same behavior pattern regardless of absolute price level!
BTC-1,4%
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