4.6 Non-farm data bearish for gold; will Monday's opening see a big plunge?

On Thursday, gold opened at 4757 in the morning session, briefly dipped to 4751, then quickly surged higher. After reaching the 4800 level, it encountered strong resistance, and the bearish momentum immediately exploded, triggering a sharp crash in prices. The gold price broke through the key support levels at 4700 and 4600 consecutively, with a low of 4553. During the European session, the price rebounded, climbing above 4600, then entered a narrow range consolidation between 4592 and 4635. In the US and midnight sessions, gold continued its "weak rebound after a plunge, with a slight recovery at the close," ultimately closing near 4675. Overall, the market was dominated entirely by the bears, with no signs of trend reversal confirmation. The short-term bearish pattern has been fully established.

News analysis:

After the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was torn up on Thursday, the US-Iran situation has remained strong. On Friday, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were released, both serving as double bearish signals for gold and silver. Under the combined impact of non-farm data and US-Iran tensions, the probability of gold prices trending downward or even plunging next week is gradually increasing. Therefore, on Monday's open, wait for the market to develop. If prices indeed plunge as expected, we can continue to follow the trend and short sell.

From the current chart perspective, the weekly gold chart shows a gradual stabilization after previous oscillations downward. The candlesticks indicate signs of stabilization, with the MACD green bars shrinking continuously, and the KDJ indicator turning upward near oversold levels. Although the medium-term weak trend has not been fully reversed, the bearish momentum has clearly weakened, and a short-term consolidation and correction phase is likely.

On the daily chart, gold is consolidating around the 5-day moving average, with the MACD green bars shortening and showing signs of turning upward. The RSI hovers in the neutral zone, indicating mild bullish recovery. However, the medium-term 20-day moving average still acts as a clear resistance, limiting the rebound potential.

On the 4-hour chart, the MA5/MA10/MA20 are in a bearish alignment, turning downward. Prices remain under pressure below the moving averages, with a death cross above the zero line on the MACD, increasing green bars, and sustained bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen back from overbought levels to 40-50, indicating weak oscillation and insufficient rebound momentum. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with prices trading below the middle band. The key support/resistance level is at 4600; if not broken, a short-term weak rebound may occur. If broken, further downside is possible, targeting 4550 and 4500. Resistance is at 4700-4750. Overall, expect a pullback or a slight gap down at Monday's open.

Gold trading strategy: Short at 4670–4680, stop loss at 4695, target 4600–4580.

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.