I just remembered a pretty interesting concept that many people often overlook when analyzing the market. That is the black swan theory introduced by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

In short, a black swan event refers to an extremely rare, almost unpredictable event that, when it occurs, has a huge impact. Taleb points out a very practical truth: traditional statistical models can never capture these events because they are based solely on past data.

The interesting part is that Taleb reminds us of a fundamental but often forgotten principle: safety in the past does not guarantee safety in the future. When facing the unknown, we tend to deceive ourselves by creating our own explanations and believing we have control over the situation. But in reality, most major changes are non-linear and not as smooth as we think.

So why is it called a "black swan"? Historically, Europeans believed that all swans were white, so black swans were considered impossible. That was until black swans were discovered in Australia, overturning all previous expectations and theories. This is a perfect example of an unpredictable event.

The name "black swan" also easily evokes thoughts of unexpected, rare, and hard-to-predict events. This aligns perfectly with the meaning Taleb wants to convey. The name is memorable, visually impactful, and easily sticks in people's minds.

For market participants, understanding the concept of black swans is quite important. It helps us realize that not all risks can be calculated. Therefore, observing the market on major exchanges or tracking assets like ETH, BTC also requires mental preparation for surprises that can happen at any moment.