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Just came across this interesting historical perspective on market cycles that's worth revisiting. Back in 1875, an economist named Samuel Benner developed a theory about economic patterns – essentially arguing that markets move through predictable phases of boom, recession, and panic.
He broke down the periods when to make money into three distinct categories. First, there are the Panic Years – roughly every 18-20 years, markets experience significant stress and collapses. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and so on. During these times, the conventional wisdom is to sit tight and avoid panic selling.
Then you've got the Boom Years where prices surge and markets recover strongly. These are typically considered the periods when to make money through selling – 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, 2026, and beyond. If you've been holding assets, this is when you'd normally take profits.
The third phase is Recession Years – when prices dip and the economy slows down. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, and so on. This is actually the buying opportunity – when stocks, land, and commodities are cheaper, and you can accumulate before the boom arrives.
So the basic playbook: buy low during recessions, hold, then sell high during boom periods. Skip the panic years or at least don't make emotional decisions.
Now, here's the important caveat – this is based on historical patterns and cycles, not some universal law. Real markets get shaped by politics, wars, technological shifts, and countless other variables. It's more of a framework to think about long-term trends rather than a guaranteed blueprint. But as a lens for understanding periods when to make money, it's pretty thought-provoking.