The transmission mechanism of oil price shocks: Which stage are we currently in?

Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. This route previously handled about one-fifth of global crude oil shipping. Brent crude oil prices surged from around $57 at the beginning of the year, with monthly increases exceeding 50% at times; in April, the spot price of Brent even reached $141.37 per barrel, the highest level since 2008.

Oil price increases → Rising inflation expectations → Central banks forced to delay or even raise interest rates → Market liquidity tightens → Repricing of overvalued risk assets. This is the core transmission mechanism. According to Huachuang Securities Research, there are three key thresholds:

Above $80: If short-term gains exceed 20% (sharp rise), stocks and bonds both decline, and the dollar strengthens;
Above $100: Even with moderate gains, risk assets will experience broad declines, with the dollar and VIX index soaring;
$150: UBS considers this the "systemic risk critical point"—once broken, the probability of a US recession skyrockets exponentially.

Historical pattern: Major oil price increases almost always mark the peak of a bull market

Since 2000, "big oil price increases = bull market top" has been almost 100% accurate: in 2008, oil surged to $147 before the subprime crisis fully erupted; in 2022, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed oil above $139, the Nasdaq fell for an entire year. The current situation differs from the past in that the global initial conditions are more fragile than at any previous time—high interest rates, persistent inflation, heavy debt burdens, and the transmission effects of energy shocks are being amplified exponentially.

From a pattern perspective: oil prices rise on expectations, fall on reality. Historically, market tops are usually not marked by the end of war but by Saudi Arabia increasing production or the Federal Reserve intervening with rate hikes. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and whether the Federal Reserve explicitly rules out interest rate cuts. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战