Market Update: On-Chain & Macro Tracking 📊

Hi everyone, sharing our latest objective breakdown of the current market structure. We are seeing the market transition into a deep consolidation phase. The data shows a significant reduction in speculative capital, leaving the market caught between long-term accumulation and current macroeconomic headwinds.
Here is what the on-chain data is showing us today:
🔍 1. Speculative Capital Reduction
The "Supply in Profit" metric has moved down to 11.3M BTC, which aligns closely with historical cyclical accumulation bands we've tracked before (such as 2018, 2020, and 2022). Short-Term Holder Realized Cap has decreased by $178B since November 2025. While selling pressure remains from the 0–12 month cohort, exchange flow data indicates the intensity is steadily cooling down.

⚖️ 2. Holder Divergence
We are seeing a clear divergence in participant behavior. Retail network activity (inflows under 1 BTC) is currently tracking at a multi-year low. On the other hand, larger entities and long-term holders appear to remain in a net accumulation phase, absorbing supply in the $66K–$68K region.

🌍 3. Macro & Supply Factors
We are keeping a close eye on miner activity, as they continue to distribute holdings to cover operating costs, creating a supply overhang. On the derivatives side, stablecoin reserves on exchanges are rising, pointing to increased margin positioning. Additionally, recent geopolitical developments and a VIX spike to ~25 suggest that the CME futures structure could be sensitive to increased volatility.

✅ The market is testing historical exhaustion levels where accumulation typically occurs. However, with ongoing miner distribution and macro sensitivity, the structure remains fragile. We are prioritizing strict risk management in these conditions.