I recently came across something that fascinated me: how a 19th-century farmer could predict market movements over 150 years with a simple observation. That man was Samuel Benner, and his theory, the Benner Cycle, still works today.

It all started with a personal blow. In 1873, Benner, a farmer in Ohio, experienced a market panic firsthand—his bankruptcy was the result. But instead of despairing, he began asking: Why does this happen? Why do these patterns repeat? As a farmer, he understood something fundamental: the growing seasons influence harvests, harvests influence supply and demand, and that affects prices. This principle led him in 1875 to his book "Trends and Phases of Business," in which he described how markets operate in recurring cycles.

What’s fascinating about the Benner Cycle is its structure. Benner identified three distinct phases that repeat over and over. First, there are the panic years—times of extreme volatility, when investors act irrationally, with prices swinging wildly up or down. During these moments, big gains are possible, but catastrophic losses are also looming. Then come the good times, the peak phases with rising asset prices—ideal for selling if you hold the right assets. And finally, the tough times, when prices fall and real bargains emerge.

What impresses me is that this Benner Cycle really worked. The Great Depression of 1929, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, the COVID crisis of 2020—all were captured by this pattern. Benner also discovered specific cycles: an 11-year rhythm in corn and pork prices, correlated with the solar cycle, and a 27-year cycle in iron prices with lows every 11, 9, and 7 years, and peaks every 8, 9, and 10 years.

Looking at the current market situation and applying the Benner Cycle analysis, it seems we are in a phase where asset prices are under pressure. This could mean we are in tough times—exactly the moment Benner saw as ideal for accumulating assets before the next peak phase arrives.

What’s interesting: Benner simply wrote under his chart, "One thing is certain." Over 100 years later, his system still works. Whether it’s Bitcoin, traditional markets, or commodities—those who understand the Benner Cycle patterns have an intriguing compass for long-term decisions.