Despite expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East… Ethereum issues a new low warning due to "disappearance of assets"

As the US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly a month, recent discussions of a “ceasefire” have shifted market sentiment. However, there are warnings that Ethereum (ETH) may show a different trend than expected.

The ongoing military tensions supported by the US and Israel against Iran have introduced uncertainty into both global financial markets and the cryptocurrency market. In fact, Bitcoin and altcoins have continued their decline since last year’s highs, and investor confidence has significantly diminished.

Ethereum (ETH) also dropped from about $2,000 to $1,850 in the early stages of the conflict but did not experience the “crash” feared by the market. Some analysts describe its movement as an “irrational” defensive trend relative to geopolitical risks.

Recent signs indicate a reversal. According to BBC reports, the US has handed over 15 peace proposals to Iran, and Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz for core oil shipments to “non-hostile ships.” Oil prices have fallen, and the market is increasingly optimistic about ETH rising if a ceasefire occurs.

However, analyst Ted argues that contrary to this optimism, ETH may rebound briefly but then decline to “new lows.” The interpretation is that positive news has been priced in early, and selling pressure could intensify.

The 2000 USD threshold… a crossroads between surge and collapse

Some market analysts believe Ethereum (ETH) is at a critical turning point. Trader Merlin considers the “psychological resistance” at $2,000 as a key benchmark.

He explains that if ETH can hold this price range, it could open the door to a potential rise up to $12,000; but if it falls below, the nine-year support line might break.

Another analyst, Wise Crypto, describes the current market as being at a “critical point.” He notes that whale sell-offs are a downward factor, while increased transfers from exchanges to personal wallets are seen as a sign of long-term holding, which could support a rally.

There are also views suggesting entry into a “generation-level buying zone.”

Some remain more optimistic. Ali Martinez, citing ETH’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio dropping below 1, believes it has entered a “generation-level buying zone.”

He emphasizes that similar ranges in the past have seen large-scale rallies and sets a long-term target between $4,632 and $5,624.

Meanwhile, investment firm BitMine has added about 65,000 ETH to its holdings, worth approximately $140 million (around 2.106 trillion KRW), expanding its position. Currently, this accounts for about 4% of the circulating supply. Such large accumulation movements are viewed as factors that stimulate market participants’ bullish expectations.

Overall, amid the macro variable of easing Middle East tensions, ETH shows conflicting directional signals. Some analysts believe whether a ceasefire will act as a “sell-the-news” event or become a new upward catalyst depends on the defense of key price levels and supply-demand shifts.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Interpretation

Expectations of easing Middle East tensions are increasing, and investor sentiment appears to be recovering, but Ethereum is also being discussed as potentially declining short-term due to “profit-taking.”

The market still shows limited downside amid geopolitical risks, confirming its defensive nature.

💡 Strategy Highlights

The $2,000 range acts as a core psychological resistance; if maintained, there is potential for a trend reversal to the upside.

Be cautious of profit-taking and selling pressure after positive news is priced in.

Monitoring the conflicting signals of whale sell-offs versus increased transfers to personal wallets is crucial.

📘 Terminology

MVRV: Market Value to Realized Value ratio; below 1 suggests assets may be undervalued.

Critical point: a key transition zone where the trend could diverge upward or downward.

Psychological resistance line: a major price level influencing investor behavior.

💡 FAQs

Q. Does easing Middle East tensions not bode well for Ethereum?

Generally a positive signal, but if already priced in, profit-taking could lead to short-term declines.

Q. Why is $2,000 an important price?

It is a core psychological level for market participants; holding it increases bullish expectations, while losing it could significantly increase downward pressure.

Q. Is now the right time to buy?

Some indicators (like MVRV) suggest undervaluation, but due to short-term volatility and uncertain supply-demand, cautious, phased entry strategies are recommended.

TP AI Notes

This summary is generated using the language model based on TokenPost.ai. The main content of the original article may be omitted or not fully accurate.