Gold Breaks Through $4,930 as Bitcoin Struggles Against Precious Metals

Commodity markets are showing a very different dynamic at the end of March 2026. While gold is reaching new highs, surpassing $4,930 an ounce, Bitcoin is going through a delicate phase with prices fluctuating around $70,860, a significant decline from its late October 2024 highs. This divergence raises major questions about the trajectory of both assets and the true forces driving global financial markets.

Gold and silver regain dominance in the investment landscape

Thursday’s session marked a notable turning point for precious metals. Gold rose an additional 1.7% to break through $4,930 an ounce, while silver posted an even more impressive gain of 3.7% to $96 an ounce. This upward momentum in metals shows no signs of slowing down and has captured the attention of global investors, who see them as reliable hedges against macroeconomic uncertainties. The success of gold reflects a growing interest in tangible assets and safe havens, especially in a context where interest rates and inflation remain central concerns.

Bitcoin under pressure: what story will reignite growth?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains in retreat, showing prolonged weakness that divides analysts. At around $70,860, the leading cryptocurrency is nearly 30% below its all-time high reached in October 2024. This poor performance has led Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, to question whether the narrative of adoption that once drove prices is exhausted. Bianco stated that adoption announcements no longer generate the enthusiasm they once did and that a new theme must emerge to revive market dynamics.

Eric Balchunas, senior derivatives analyst at Bloomberg, offers a different perspective. He believes Bitcoin is simply undergoing a natural consolidation phase after extraordinary gains: from below $16,000 during the depths of the 2022 crypto winter to a peak of $126,000 in October 2024. This represents about a 300% increase over twenty months, a performance Balchunas considers respectable even with the current correction.

Fourteen months of comparison reveal a troubling reality

To understand the true divergence between gold and Bitcoin, let’s look at their performance over a 14-month period since November 2024. In this timeframe, Bitcoin has only gained 2.6%, while silver surged 205%, gold 83%, the Nasdaq 24%, and the S&P 500 17.6%. These figures illustrate a situation where Bitcoin is losing ground against nearly all major indices and commodities—a reality Bianco highlights as particularly concerning.

Bitcoin’s weakness starkly contrasts with its situation a year before November 2024, when the cryptocurrency had gained 122% over the previous twelve months, far surpassing gold. This role reversal raises questions about the true nature of demand for cryptocurrencies and the effectiveness of institutional adoption mechanisms.

Early liquidations undermine confidence

Balchunas offers a convincing explanation for this disappointing performance: early investors are liquidating their positions after many years of holding to realize profits. This phenomenon, dubbed the “silent IPO” of Bitcoin, became more visible this summer when a major investor sold over $9 billion worth of BTC in July after holding for more than ten years. These massive sales weigh on prices and reflect widespread profit-taking within the ecosystem.

Altcoins keep pace while Bitcoin stalls

Despite Bitcoin’s challenges, altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin have gained about 5%, in line with broader stock markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose around 1.2%, demonstrating some resilience in traditional asset markets. However, the persistent outperformance of gold in this context underscores its enduring appeal as a diversification instrument.

Towards stabilization? The upcoming catalysts

Analysts identify two likely scenarios for the coming weeks. A bullish scenario depends on the stabilization of oil prices and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, key geopolitical factors. If these conditions normalize, a new attempt at the $74,000–$76,000 range for Bitcoin could be considered. Conversely, a deterioration of these geopolitical conditions could push prices toward the mid-$60,000s, levels that would force a complete reevaluation of speculative positions.

Meanwhile, gold is expected to continue benefiting from its status as a safe haven, especially if international tensions persist and investors continue seeking hedges against macroeconomic volatility. The trajectory of precious metals in the coming months will serve as a reliable barometer of global investors’ true risk appetite.