Evening Market Analysis $ETH

ETH today experienced a remarkable super rally, moving from 2085 to 2302 with a single-day increase of over 10%, making it the strongest daily performance in recent times. From an SMC structure perspective, the driving logic behind this move is very clear: during the early morning hours, the price completed a prolonged bottom accumulation in the 2085-2110 range. This was followed by six consecutive bullish 4H candles, with each 4H candle's volume exceeding 30 million, and during the main upward phase, a single 4H candle reached a volume of 103 million. This sustained volume expansion indicates that the major funds are firmly accumulating long positions, rather than engaging in short-term speculation.

Looking at the structural inflection points, today featured three key liquidity events worth reviewing. The first occurred in the afternoon when the price surged to 2288 and then pulled back—this was the first sweep of liquidity above. After this sweep, the price quickly retraced to 2244, eliminating retail traders chasing longs. The second event was when the price broke below the triple bottom support at 2244, reaching a low of 2233.33—a classic liquidity harvesting move where the main players deliberately pierced obvious support levels to collect stop-loss orders below, then immediately reversed sharply, pulling from 2233 to 2279 in one move. The third event was the evening attempt to push into the 2295-2302 zone, where a single 5-minute candle volume reached 5,117K (more than three times the average volume). After two tests above 2300, the price is currently consolidating near 2286.

From a multi-timeframe resonance perspective, the 4H/1H/15M/5M levels are all in bullish alignment, with EMA20 above EMA50 across all timeframes, and the price trading above all moving averages. The 4H Break of Structure (BOS) has been confirmed multiple times, with no signs of a Change of Character (CHoCH) indicating bearish reversal. The 1H V-reversal after the 2244 sweep is a textbook example of liquidity harvesting followed by continuation of the original trend, further confirming the dominance of the bullish trend.

Regarding volume and price relationship, today’s volume distribution is very healthy. During the main upward phase, volume continued to expand, while during pullbacks, volume noticeably contracted (for example, during the 2233 sweep, the 1H volume was only 19.6 million, far below the 88 million+ during the main rally). This is a typical healthy bullish pattern of “volume increasing on rallies and decreasing on pullbacks.” When breaking through 2279 in the evening, the 15M volume reached 7,713K, with multiple 5M candles showing large volumes exceeding 3,000K, confirming the breakout’s validity.

Risks to watch include: first, the psychological resistance at the 2300 level—two attempts to break above have failed to hold convincingly, so in the short term, the price may consolidate between 2285 and 2302 to digest profit-taking; second, a 10% daily gain means a large portion of floating profits need to be realized, and during low-liquidity late-night hours, rapid wicks or sharp dips could occur; third, RSI across multiple timeframes is in overbought territory—while strong trends can sustain overbought conditions, extreme overbought levels may trigger technical pullbacks.

In terms of trading strategy, the overall bias remains bullish, and counter-trend short positions are not recommended. Entry should preferably wait for a pullback to key support levels (2285 or 2279), rather than chasing highs. If the 2300 level can be broken with volume confirmation (a 5M close above 1500K volume), then the upward space toward 2310-2320 opens up. On the downside, only if the 5M candle closes below 2285 should caution be exercised regarding a potential false breakout at 2302; monitor whether strong support at 2270-2279 can hold. Overall, as long as the 4H bullish trend remains intact, any pullback is a potential opportunity to go long—patience is key to wait for confirmation on dips, avoiding chasing after highs or lows.