The market is no longer fully betting on the Fed cutting rates this year

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-12T16:07:43+00:00

Bond traders' expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have weakened somewhat, with current forecasts predicting only 24 basis points of rate cuts this year, down from the previous expectation of 30 basis points. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, as markets worry that Middle East conflicts could further push up energy prices and inflation.

MarsBitNews

2026-03-12 16:07:43

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Mars Finance News: On March 12, bond traders no longer fully incorporate expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026. Interest rate swaps linked to the Federal Reserve policy meeting date show that traders on Thursday expect only a 24 basis point rate cut this year, less than a full 25 basis point cut, whereas Wednesday night’s expectations were around 30 basis points. This change occurs amid a continued decline in U.S. Treasury bonds, with the two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy changes, rising 4 basis points to nearly 3.70%. U.S. bonds faced pressure this week as investors worry that ongoing Middle East conflicts will continue to push energy prices higher, leading to a resurgence in inflation. (Jin10)

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