The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. 20 million barrels a day (about 20% of everything the world burns) has been offline since US and Israeli strikes killed Khamenei on Feb 28, the largest supply disruption in recorded history.

Every producer outside the conflict just got asked to step up. Kazakhstan and US shale said no and executives publicly stated they’d need prices stable at these levels for a full year before changing capital plans, and they’re using the spike to hedge and return cash to shareholders instead.
OPEC+’s official response to a 20 million barrel gap was a 206,000 barrel increase for April.
Wood Mackenzie put $150 as the base case this week and said $200 isn’t outside the realms of possibility if the strait stays closed.
The worst part is the incentive structure. Every producer not currently at war just received a $50/barrel raise they didn’t have to do anything to earn. The only people with the ability to fix this are incentivised to do the opposite.