Rising potential inflation risks weaken expectations of rate cuts; the probability of a Fed rate cut in March is only 2.6%.

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-10T08:55:41+00:00

The turmoil in the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to rising oil prices, increasing inflation risks and weakening expectations of rate cuts. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 97.4%. The likelihood of maintaining unchanged rates until before April is estimated at 85.3%.

MarsBitNews

2026-03-10 08:55:41

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Mars Finance News: On March 10, the ongoing turmoil in Middle Eastern geopolitics has driven up oil prices, increasing potential inflation risks and weakening expectations for rate cuts. According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the current probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.6%, while the chance of holding rates steady is 97.4%. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged until April is 85.3%, with a 14.4% chance of a total 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29.

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