Will Monday's opening see extreme volatility? Crude oil surges, US stocks come under pressure, can Bitcoin remain resilient? Here's a quick review.

1. Trump's "Path Dependence" Faces Obstacles
His previous tough stance on Venezuela was effective, prompting Maduro to quickly concede, leading Trump to expect a "quick victory." But this time, regarding Iran (including the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei), Iran has shown strong resistance, refusing to surrender or compromise. Trump publicly stated he wants to "participate in selecting Iran's next leader" and demanded "unconditional surrender," but Iran's officials repeatedly emphasized that "the future will be decided by the Iranian people, and they will not yield."
2. Military escalation continues, Iran's low-cost counterattacks favored
The conflict has entered its second week. The US has increased forces, with the USS Gerald R. Ford crossing the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, approaching the battlefield area (there are reports that a third aircraft carrier is also preparing for deployment). Iran relies on low-cost, asymmetric strikes using drones and missiles, supported by satellite positioning provided by Russia, continuing attacks on US and Israeli targets and oil tankers. The Strait of Hormuz shipping is nearly halted, severely disrupting the global energy supply chain.
3. Similar to a "tariff war" script? Forced "victory" to stop losses after a plunge
The current market logic is similar to the early stages of last year's tariff war: geopolitical risks boost risk aversion, crude oil surges, US stocks retreat, and risk assets come under pressure. In extreme cases, a sharp decline may occur until Trump can no longer bear the economic and political costs, declaring "significant damage to Iran" and seeking a ceasefire or concessions, leading to a retaliatory rebound (epic in US stocks + crypto history). But this turning point is likely to take a few weeks; short-term risks remain high.
4. Monday's opening focus
US stocks and crude oil futures will open around 6:00 AM Taipei time (Sunday evening Eastern Time), with markets extremely tense. Crude oil has gone wild: WTI surged over 35% last week (the largest weekly gain in history), closing Friday at about $90.9/barrel; Brent approached $93, hitting multi-year highs. US stocks retreated sharply last week, with indices like the Dow plunging, futures pointing to further declines. Due to 24-hour trading, the crypto market has already priced in some bad news; Bitcoin has fallen significantly in the past two days but is relatively less affected.
5. Short-term Bitcoin observation
Bitcoin found clear support around 67,000 two days ago, briefly dipped below midday, then quickly rebounded, showing strong defense by bulls. The overall short-term trend remains bearish (negative factors not resolved), but a rebound after a deep dip is not surprising.
Trading ideas:
- Most conservative: wait for a rebound to resistance zones (around 69,000–70,000) before shorting 30% (similar to previous profit-taking), watch for market opportunities.
- After a significant drop, add shorts at rebound highs.
Long-term short positions held since 74,000 are already quite profitable; continue holding. Regardless of price movement, there are opportunities.
Summary: Short-term geopolitical risks dominate. Crude oil and US stock futures are likely to remain volatile and weak on Monday, with extreme scenarios (sharp drops or violent surges) possible. Bitcoin is relatively resilient but cannot fully decouple from risky assets. It is recommended to control positions, observe Monday's opening reactions, and decide whether to add or reduce holdings. Risk management first—don't go all-in betting on direction. #加密市场小幅下跌 #原油价格飙升 #美伊局势影响 $BTC