Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) Research Analysis and Trading Recommendations

As of 2026-03-05, stock price is 7.09 RMB, PE-TTM 6.89 times, PB 0.66 times, dividend yield approximately 5.8%
1. Profitability and Fundamentals
Steady profit improvement: Revenue of 640.028 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025 (+2.17%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 269.908 billion RMB (+0.33%); Q3 net profit first to break 100 billion RMB, year-over-year +3.29%, profit turning point evident. Non-interest income up 11.3% YoY, structural optimization.
Excellent asset quality: NPL ratio at 1.33% (stable over multiple quarters), loan loss reserve coverage ratio at 217.21%, capital adequacy ratio at 18.85%, very strong risk resistance.
Core advantages: The largest bank globally by asset size, stable deposit base, strong policy and credit backing, suitable for core holdings.
2. Valuation and Cost-Effectiveness
Current valuation at a historical low, PB only 0.66 times, significantly below industry average; dividend yield nearly 6%, far exceeding wealth management and fixed deposits, offering strong defensive and compound growth value. Institutional consensus target price center at 8.6 RMB, with room for recovery.
3. Core Risks
Net interest margin still under pressure, revenue growth relatively low;
Potential credit fluctuations in real estate and local government financing platforms;
Weak stock price elasticity, limited swing gains.
4. Trading Recommendations (A-shares)
Investment style: Conservative, long-term allocation, high dividend strategy.
Position building: Accumulate in batches below 7.0 RMB, increase position below 6.8 RMB.
Stop-loss: Effectively cut losses if falling below 6.5 RMB.
Take profit: Gradually reduce holdings in the 7.8–8.5 RMB range; long-term holding can enjoy dividends, avoid frequent trading.
Position size: 20%–40% of the portfolio, serving as a defensive ballast.
5. Summary
ICBC is a benchmark among large banks with low valuation, high dividend yield, and high safety margin, with stable performance, low risk, and reliable dividends. The current position is suitable for long-term allocation, not for short-term speculation.