#深度创作营

Next week's market in-depth analysis preview—Middle East conflict escalation and the US non-farm payroll data release

For cryptocurrency and TradFi gold, silver, oil, US stocks traders, be sure to read to the end!
This week's weekday markets were calm, but the weekend was tumultuous, with Bitcoin completing two days what took half a month last time. However, this is not the end, just the beginning. Aside from some Middle Eastern countries that work on Sundays, almost all major stock and futures exchanges worldwide are closed. Next week's market will be even more turbulent. Here, Little财神 will give you a preview of next week's financial market trends and major events impacting the markets:

👉 Let's first review this weekend's market movements:

Bitcoin initially plunged to $63,000 after the Saturday start of conflict but has since recovered all losses. Meanwhile, the perpetual swap contract linked to gold surged above $5,400 per ounce after the conflict began, but the latest quote has fallen back to around $5,300. Silver perpetual swaps briefly hit $97 per ounce, with the latest at $95. Oil-linked contracts also rose nearly 5%. US stock index perpetual contracts generally declined by 1%-2%.

👉 Now, let's look at the major events expected to influence the market next week:

1. US-Iran War Development:

According to US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, this round of military action could "last several days," which will likely have a sustained impact on global markets next week. Here are some notable updates on the conflict:

1. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the US-Israel targeted operation, and Iran will hold a 40-day national mourning period.

2. Due to the direct impact of the conflict on Middle Eastern aviation hubs, the UAE and Qatar, the international passenger market is in chaos. Dubai authorities confirmed that a terminal corridor at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was slightly damaged in an incident, with four staff injured.

3. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

4. Top officials including Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander, Armed Forces Chief of Staff, and Defense Minister were killed in the US-Israel strikes.

5. Iran's missiles hit the Israeli military headquarters.

6. Khamenei's death sparked celebrations with statue topplings among the public. Coupled with previous anti-government protests in Iran, the regime may face internal collapse.

From the war's trajectory, there's a possibility it could develop into a blitzkrieg. The continuous deaths of high-ranking officials may accelerate the war's end.

📈 Potential market impacts:

1. If the conflict develops into a blitzkrieg or if there is a regime change in Iran, the war could end sooner. Next week, watch whether the upward trend in gold, silver, and oil can continue, and whether Bitcoin will find support and rebound.

2. If the conflict worsens, gold, silver, and oil are expected to rise further. Long positions on oil and precious metals are advisable, but be cautious of a potential drop in Bitcoin.

2. US February Non-Farm Payroll Data Release:

For US stocks, which have been "weak at 7000 points," next Friday's employment data is especially important. After January's non-farm data significantly exceeded expectations, investors will watch whether this is a fleeting phenomenon or if the US economy is truly stabilizing and improving. This will also influence the Fed's future rate cut path. Currently, the US money market has priced in the next rate cut only by July.

📈 Potential market impacts:

1. If February employment data again exceeds expectations, the rate cut outlook for March and June may be completely closed, and Bitcoin and gold/silver markets could react with a correction.

2. If the data is particularly weak, it will be bullish for Bitcoin and precious metals, and bearish for the US dollar index. Traders holding USD should pay attention.

3. China enters the "Two Sessions" next week

As the start of a new five-year plan, there will be discussions on industrial development strategies, and whether policies will be introduced for emerging industries like AI, robotics, and new energy vehicles.

Additionally, note that China recently issued Policy Document No. 42 ("Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Risks Related to Virtual Assets"), which includes measures such as "completely banning RWA tokenization" and "stopping offshore stablecoins pegged to the RMB." It also clarified that RWA based on Hong Kong assets are outside the scope of Document No. 42. Will the Two Sessions revisit cryptocurrency-related topics?

📈 Potential market impacts:

1. If new crypto regulations are proposed, the market may see slight bearishness, but the impact should be limited.

2. Investors in stocks should note that in previous years, "Two Sessions" often marked the end of bullish momentum and a start of a downward trend, so risk management is advised.

4. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to attend Morgan Stanley TMT Conference

After two consecutive days of "market cap evaporating trillions," Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang will attend the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 4. Watch whether Huang's speech contains highlights or key comments related to the company's business, which could support Nvidia's stock price and boost the entire chip sector and US stocks.

5. US stocks and major A-shares earnings reports

Monday, "Chinese AI star stock" MiniMax will release its first post-IPO earnings report.

Wednesday, TPU concept stock Broadcom will disclose its latest earnings, continuing the US market's AI investment enthusiasm.

Thursday, JD.com and Bilibili will report their earnings in turn.

👉 Finally, let's preview next week's financial markets:

1. Gold and Silver Markets:

Before the conflict erupts on Friday, under regional tensions, gold has risen 1.6%, and silver surged 7%. With the ongoing escalation over the weekend, both markets are expected to open sharply higher on Monday. Traders can consider lightening positions at the open to chase gains, but should watch for short-term profit-taking after a big rally. In the latter half of next week, as conflict factors diminish, the market will shift to non-farm data releases. Given January's strong non-farm data, beware of February data rising again, which could form a "double top" and pressure gold and silver prices.

📊 Trading strategies: 1. Light long positions on XAUT and XAG perpetual contracts at current prices; traders in TradFi can open small long positions on gold and silver after the market opens tomorrow.

2. Short near previous highs in gold, with a stop-loss around 5700.

Key levels: Gold: Support at 5150, Resistance at 5650

Silver: Support at $88.3, First resistance at $100, Second resistance at $112

2. Cryptocurrency

The negative impact from the conflict on Saturday has been somewhat absorbed by the crypto market. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a wide-range consolidation, with the lower bound at $63,000 and the upper at $69,000. If no major turning point occurs in the conflict next week, Bitcoin is expected to continue oscillating within this range. Use stop-losses for short-term trading, buy low and sell high.

📊 Trading strategies: Short Bitcoin: 69,500 (Stop-loss at 70,100) Long Bitcoin: 63,388 (Stop-loss at 62,890) Short ETH: 2,138 (Stop-loss at 2,151) Long ETH: 1,800 (Stop-loss at 1,779)

Key levels: Resistance at 70,000, Support at 62,980, Range center at 66,500

3. Oil Market

Similar to gold and silver, last week, oil surged on fears of conflict. Now, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern oil exports are completely paralyzed, directly supporting oil prices. Barclays Bank forecasts Brent crude could rise to $80 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions. Expect a sharp open and continued upward trend on Monday.

📊 Trading strategies: For TradFi traders, if Monday's open shows limited gains, consider small long positions.

Key levels: First resistance at $70, Second at $80, Support at $63.5

4. US Stocks and Major A-shares

Currently, US stock index perpetual contracts are generally down 1%-2%. A likely scenario is a decline at Monday's open. The A-shares market is also expected to open lower, compounded by the "Two Sessions curse," so risk avoidance is recommended.

Finally, I want to say that "Capital never sleeps." Every day, markets are staged with sudden events and narrative-driven speculation. In the face of complex and chaotic situations, our goal is not to chase every trend but to protect our principal, observe more and act less, and anchor our survival amid the capital tides. Living on is more important than winning once.