#比特币下一步怎么走？ Bitcoin or "Halved" to $31,000

If history is any guide, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, still faces significant "pain" ahead.
Strategy analysts from Ned Davis Research, a well-known independent macro and market strategy research firm, recently stated in a report to clients that despite experiencing significant sell-offs in recent months, Bitcoin still has potential downside.
Chief thematic strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls said that if this bear market evolves into a full-blown crypto winter, the price of this digital currency could fall to $31,000.
Since its peak in October last year ($126,199), Bitcoin has dropped about 45%. A further decline to $31,000 would mean a drop of approximately 55% from current levels. Tschosik and Mouls noted that their analysis of Bitcoin’s historical declines leads them to believe that if this sell-off escalates into a winter, the cryptocurrency could see a 70% to 75% decline from peak to trough.
NDR stated that during previous Bitcoin winters since 2011, the average decline was 84%. Tschosik and Mouls added that winters typically last around 225 days; however, in this current downturn, Bitcoin has only been down for 129 days since peaking in early October last year. Nonetheless, they also mentioned that it’s not certain that a Bitcoin winter will occur, as the cryptocurrency now has more institutional buyers than in the past, which could help stabilize its price.
"As you can see, the declines during past winters/major bear markets have been gradually decreasing, and we believe this trend will continue," they said. Bearish sentiment has been intensifying in recent weeks as Bitcoin’s decline accelerates, fueling expectations of further drops.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said on Thursday that he expects digital asset prices to experience more pain in the coming months. He estimated that if selling pressure continues, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or even lower. Recently, John Blank, Chief Strategist at Zacks Investment Research, speculated that given the crypto winter’s average duration of over a year, Bitcoin could drop to $40,000. Last week, Stifel predicted that this current decline could push Bitcoin’s price down to around $38,000.