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Bitcoin is now much closer to its bottom than a top.
Historically, when Bitcoin "supply in profit/loss" has converged, a cycle bottom has happened.
During the dump to $60K, this was very close to happening but didn't happen.
If you compare this with last cycle, something similar happened when BTC dropped below $20K in June 2022.
The actual bottom happened 20% lower, which could happen this time too.
For now, Bitcoin and alts are having a relief rally, but this isn't the start of a new bull run.
BTC could have one more flush below $50K (August 2024 bottom), especially due to major US stocks showing weakness.
And when that'll happen, most people will wait for even lower, just like they waited for higher to sell in 2025.