【$SOL Signal】Hold Cash and Wait — Downtrend Continuation, Deep Imbalance Needs Repair

$SOL Continued bearish decline after breaking below EMA20, current price weakly consolidating around 78.3. 4H timeframe shows a downtrend continuation pattern, buying pressure is weak.

🎯Direction: Hold Cash (NoPosition)

Market Analysis: Price has broken below all short-term moving averages (EMA20: 81.1). RSI (36.4) indicates oversold conditions but no divergence, and downward momentum persists. The key point is that open interest (OI) remains stable, but funding rate (-0.0012%) is negative. Combined with falling prices, this suggests short squeeze or passive long liquidation pressure, rather than active selling by major players.

Hardcore Logic: OrderBook depth imbalance (4.65%) shows ask orders (sellers) significantly thicker than bid orders (buyers), especially in the 78.3-78.5 range forming a supply wall, which is a typical resistance zone for rebounds. Meanwhile, buy/sell ratio (0.45-0.52) remains below 1, indicating market sentiment is bearish, dominated by active selling pressure.

Currently, no clear bullish signals: 1. Key support (around 76.5) not yet touched. 2. Deep imbalance not repaired. 3. Volume contraction not significant enough. Bearish conditions are also not met: funding rate not extremely positive, OI not decreasing, no bearish divergence.

Strategy: Hold cash and observe. Wait for price to reach around 76.5 with buy absorption (Pin Bar/volume spike bullish candle) and deep imbalance repaired before considering long entries on the left side. Alternatively, wait for a rebound to 80.5 (EMA20 and previous structure level) showing signs of stagnation before shorting on the right side.

Trade here 👇 $SOL

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