In February 2026, as Bitcoin repeatedly struggled around the $60,000 mark, everyone was asking: Has the bull market ended?

The answer might be more brutal than "ended"—Bitcoin's twelve-year "four-year cycle" logic is collapsing. From 15.9x to 3.5x, and now to 1.8x in this round, the peak gains of each bull market have been dropping off a cliff. This is no longer just a simple bull-bear switch; it’s a "survival crisis" concerning the underlying logic of asset valuation. And $55,000 is the ultimate threshold for this crisis.

1. Gains Halved, the Bull Market Framework Is Falling Apart
We are used to the script where Bitcoin "drops a lot, then recovers more," but data doesn’t lie:
✅ 2017 cycle: 15.9x increase
✅ 2021 cycle: 3.5x increase
✅ 2025 cycle: only 1.8x increase
This means the "ceiling" of this bull market has been drastically lowered.
More critically: while gains have shrunk, losses have not. Dropping from a high of $126,000 to $60,000, the retracement has already reached 52%. According to the 1.8x gain logic, the maximum retracement this bull market can withstand is 44%. Now, we have broken through this safety threshold. The previous bull market high ($69,000) was supposed to be the "bottom" of this bear market, but now it has become an unreachable luxury.

2. $55,000: The "Life and Death Line" Under Triple Support
Why $55,000? It’s not mysticism but the stacking of three solid supports:
1. 8-year trend line: spanning two bull-bear cycles, a 3000-day lifeline;
2. VWAP central cost: the market’s average cost since the 2022 bottom;
3. Previous high support: the technical reflection of the $69,000 historical peak.
🚨 Once effectively broken below $55,000, two destructive signals will be triggered:
1. Growth logic failure: if it rises 1.8x from $55,000, the next peak would only be $99,000, trapping Bitcoin in a "long-term sideways" death spiral.
2. Cycle faith collapse: "Previous high becomes previous low," meaning the logarithmic growth model of the past twelve years is completely invalidated.

3. Three Paths Forward: Glory, Destruction, and Reset
Faced with this dilemma, Bitcoin’s future has only three options:
1. Path of Glory (Digital Gold): Volatility zeroes out, no more wild swings. Although growth is slow, declines are limited, and $69,000 will become a solid bottom again.
2. Path of Destruction (Speculative Asset): High volatility persists, but upward movement stalls. The four-year cycle becomes entirely invalid, and Bitcoin turns into a typical high-risk speculative asset with no "certainty."
3. Path of Reset (New Narrative Emerges): Relying solely on ETFs isn’t enough; sovereign nations or large institutions need to enter, using a whole new capital influx to reshape the growth curve.

4. The Current Market: Risk-Reward Ratio Has Been Completely Deteriorated
Potential upside is only 20%-50%, but potential downside remains as high as 50%. For us, the operational logic must change:
📉 Short-term: $55,000 is an absolute defense line; if broken effectively, exit decisively.
📈 Long-term: If you want to bottom fish, be prepared for the psychological reality that "Bitcoin no longer has a big bull run." Bitcoin cannot sustain high retracements while maintaining low gains. This is a fundamental law of finance. Currently, the market is near $60,000, waiting for the final verdict.

The above is just for sharing, not investment advice!!!