The United States will release the January seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figures tonight at 9:30 PM (UTC+8). The previous value was 50,000 jobs, with an expectation of 70,000. This report was delayed from the originally scheduled release on February 6 due to a brief government shutdown at the end of January. It is the first non-farm employment data for 2026 and has significant implications for Federal Reserve policy expectations, U.S. stocks, the dollar, and more. Currently, market focus is on whether job growth continues to be sluggish and whether the revised data will reinforce signals of a "frozen" or "slowing" labor market.

On Polymarket, the current probability of the non-farm employment data being significantly negative is 10%, the probability of 0 to 25,000 jobs is 33%, 25,000 to 50,000 jobs is 32%, 50,000 to 75,000 jobs is 25%, and 75,000 to 100,000 jobs is 11%.

It is noteworthy that this report also includes annual benchmark revisions, which are expected to significantly downwardly revise the employment data for 2025 (initial estimates show that employment growth from April 2025 to March 2026 will be about 911,000 fewer than the initial figures), potentially further confirming a soft labor market.

Ahead of the non-farm report, White House officials have been actively guiding market expectations. Senior White House trade advisor Peter Navarro stated that it is "reasonable to significantly lower" expectations for monthly employment data, believing that in the current context of deporting illegal immigrants and shrinking the labor force, an employment increase of about 50,000 per month can be considered a "stable level," and should no longer be compared to the six-figure growth during Biden's administration. Kevin Hasset, director of the White House National Economic Council, also said that employment data might appear weaker due to a decline in the labor force, but this is not inconsistent with strong GDP growth and productivity improvements, and the market should not overreact. #当前行情抄底还是观望？ $BTC