XRP's Bear Pressure: Could the Drop to $1.20 Become Reality?

At $1.39 with a modest 2.41% gain over the past 24 hours, XRP finds itself at a critical juncture where the near-term bear recovery faces mounting obstacles. The token remains trapped in a consolidation phase across both USD and BTC trading pairs, with the early January rebound appearing increasingly likely to be nothing more than a short-covering bounce rather than the foundation of a genuine uptrend. Analysts are watching closely to determine whether XRP can stabilize into a healthy base or whether bearish pressure will drive prices toward the lower targets that have become the subject of intense debate.

Current Technical Setup – Where XRP Stands

The broader price structure tells a cautionary tale for bulls. XRP has been repeatedly rejected from key overhead resistance, and the medium-term moving averages continue to slope downward, reinforcing the bearish narrative. The daily RSI has cooled from overbought conditions, suggesting that buying momentum has faded. This combination of headwinds means the burden of proof now rests on bulls to demonstrate that the recent bounce represents something more than profit-taking by short sellers.

The USDT Pair: Support Levels in Focus

On the USDT chart, XRP is currently holding above the critical demand band of $1.80–$1.90 after being repelled by the $2.40 supply zone. As long as this floor remains intact, there is still potential for a basing pattern to form, with $2.20–$2.40 serving as the first threshold that would need to be reclaimed to suggest a genuine trend reversal. However, a decisive breakdown below $1.80 would be deeply concerning, potentially opening the door toward the October lows near $1.60 and, if selling pressure intensifies, the haunting possibility of a drop toward the $1.20–$1.30 zone. This lower demand area remains a critical question mark – whether it represents capitulation or merely another waypoint in a prolonged bear cycle.

BTC Correlation: Bearish Divergence Signals

Against Bitcoin, XRP tells a similar story of struggle. The XRP/BTC pair is hovering in the 2,100–2,200 sats region after a sharp rejection from the 2,400 sats resistance cluster. The pair remains locked in a structural downtrend, with each attempted rally into 2,400–2,500 sats being systematically sold and momentum consistently failing to establish higher highs. Support exists around 1,900–2,000 sats, but until daily closes reclaim at least the 2,400–2,500 sats region, XRP continues to underperform relative to Bitcoin. A breakdown below 1,800 sats would signal renewed weakness and could extend the decline toward the prior demand zone near 1,500 sats.

Two Scenarios – Recovery or Further Decline?

The stakes are now clear. For bulls, the path forward requires holding the $1.80–$1.90 floor and gradually reclaiming the $2.20–$2.40 band while the BTC pair simultaneously breaks above 2,400 sats. For bears, any failure to hold these levels could accelerate the drop toward $1.60, and ultimately the psychological and technical battleground at $1.20. With XRP’s historical all-time high at $3.65 now a distant memory, the question is no longer about new highs but about where the bear cycle finally finds equilibrium. Until technical confirmation emerges, the bearish bias remains the dominant force, and the risk of testing lower support levels persists.