Day 11 · Embracing the "Probability Game": Seeking Advantage in Uncertainty

Good morning, pragmatic decision-makers.
This is #币圈100天成长计划 Day 11/100.
🎲 You must accept a fundamental reality: investing in the crypto space is essentially a probability game, not a science of certainty.
Every decision is a bet on a series of future possibilities with incomplete information.
However, most people are trapped by "result bias": the profit or loss of a single trade determines their judgment of their decision quality. Winning makes them think they are geniuses; losing blames luck or market manipulation. This keeps you cycling through emotions, preventing the accumulation of true decision-making advantage.
The core difference between experts and ordinary people is:
Experts pursue a decision system with a mathematical edge through long-term repeated decisions;
Ordinary people pursue the illusion that every bet must win.
💎 Today's mindset upgrade: Build your "probability decision" checklist
Before making any investment decision, ask yourself:
1. Advantage assessment: Based on my research, what is the probability of success? (Require a specific percentage, like 60%, not just "possible")
2. Odds assessment: If successful, what is the potential return? (R) If unsuccessful, what is the expected loss? (r) Calculate the odds: R / r — is it attractive enough?
3. Position sizing: Based on "probability" and "odds," how much should I allocate? (High probability + high odds = re-bet; low probability + high odds = small trial; others = be cautious or skip)
4. Outcome isolation: Regardless of the result of this single trade, did I strictly follow the above process? If yes, even with a loss, it’s still a "good trade."
✨ Key cognition:
You need to distinguish between "decision quality" and "result luck." In the long run, consistently making decisions with a positive mathematical expectation will naturally attract wealth. Focus on the correct process, and let the results happen naturally.
We cannot control the outcome of each dice roll, but we can choose to play only games where the rules favor us.
👇 Have you ever made a "process correct but result poor" trade, or a "sloppy process but lucky result" trade? How did it change your understanding?
Share your experience, and let’s explore the profundity of probability together.