#BTC何时反弹？ Opinion: After BTC falls below the 100-week SMA, if it does not quickly recover, it could decline by 45%-58% within 30-50 days to around the 200-week SMA.

According to Ali Charts analysis on February 3, the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) has historically been a key macro support level for Bitcoin. Since 2015, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 100-week SMA, it has typically failed to recover quickly and has further declined toward the 200-week SMA, often accompanied by a 45%-58% correction over approximately 30-50 days.
Past cycle performances are as follows:

December 2014: After breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin dropped 55%, taking about 35 days to reach the 200-week moving average;
November 2018: After the weekly close below the 100-week moving average, the price fell 45%, completing in about 28 days;
March 2020 (pandemic crash): Within just one week, it dropped from the 100-week to the 200-week moving average, a 47% correction;
May 2022: After breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin declined 58%, taking about 49 days.

As of last week, Bitcoin closed again below the 100-week SMA. If the historical pattern repeats, a correction of about 50% could occur, with the downward target area estimated between $56,000 and $50,000, possibly between March and April.