CME FedWatch Indicates 95%: Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates in January

MysteriousZhang · 2026-01-30T10:07:48+00:00

Market expectations indicate a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, with only 5% betting on cuts. By March, the chances of holding steady drop to 84.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 15.4%.

MysteriousZhang

2026-01-30 10:07:48

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The latest CME FedWatch data indicates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged during January. According to ChainCatcher, there is only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut during this period. This scenario represents the most expected outcome by market participants in the short term.

Short-Term Outlook: The Predominant Scenario in January

The FedWatch tool, developed by CME, continues to show strong market consensus on maintaining rates this month. The 95% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will preserve the current level reflects the caution of monetary authorities in light of the current economic scenario. The small 5% percentage pointing to a cut represents minority positions in the derivatives market.

Expectations for March: Greater Openness to Changes

As the time horizon extends, the scenario changes significantly. In March, the probability of maintaining rates at the current level drops to 84.1%, while the possibility of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 15.4%. The chance of a more aggressive reduction of 50 basis points remains minimal, at just 0.6%, suggesting that deeper cuts are not expected by market operators.

This probability trajectory shows the expected evolution of Federal Reserve decisions over the coming months, reflecting market expectations about the U.S. monetary cycle.

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