BitGo Sets IPO at $18, Signaling Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth in Custody Business

Crypto custody firm BitGo kicked off 2026 with a precisely calculated market entry. The company priced its initial public offering at $18 per share, establishing a $2 billion valuation on a fully diluted basis ahead of its debut on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker BTGO. Unlike the volatile crypto trading platforms that dominate headlines, BitGo’s entry point reflects a fundamentally different investment thesis—one anchored in predictable, recurring revenue rather than speculative trading volumes.

The timing reveals something noteworthy about how public markets are re-evaluating the cryptocurrency sector. While BitGo prepares to trade, the broader digital asset industry remains under pressure. Publicly listed crypto companies that launched during 2025 have faced sustained headwinds. Bullish, which owns CoinDesk, has shed more than 40% of its share value over the past six months. Owlting, focused on stablecoin infrastructure, experienced a steeper 90% decline. Gemini Space Station, the custody and trading platform linked to the Winklevoss twins, dropped roughly 70%. Even the CoinDesk 20 index—a bellwether for the sector—declined approximately 33% during the same period.

Why Crypto IPOs Face Headwinds Despite BitGo’s Stability Focus

The market backdrop for BitGo’s public debut is unquestionably challenging. Token price volatility and tightened risk appetite have made institutional investors skeptical of crypto-exposed equities. Yet BitGo’s positioning stands apart from struggling predecessors. The distinction hinges on revenue predictability.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, argues that BitGo’s business model creates a defensible advantage amid market turbulence. Unlike trading-heavy competitors, BitGo’s revenue streams from custody and staking services have demonstrated resilience even as broader crypto markets weakened through 2025. This resilience underpins Sigel’s optimistic outlook on potential valuation expansion post-IPO.

The analyst estimates BitGo could generate over $400 million in annual revenue and exceed $120 million in EBITDA by 2028. Such projections, if realized, would justify a share price above the IPO offering and support a premium valuation multiple relative to trading-centric rivals like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital. The math depends on continued execution in custody and staking services, which Sigel notes comprise more than 80% of the company’s revenue base.

Custody and Staking: The Revenue Foundation Behind BitGo’s Valuation

Understanding BitGo’s investment case requires digging beneath headline revenue figures. Accounting rules require certain trading activities to be reported on a gross basis, inflating reported top-line revenue while the actual economic value captured by the company remains modest. When trading-related costs are stripped out, the operational reality becomes clearer.

BitGo’s real economic revenue—derived from custody and staking services—runs approximately $160 million to $170 million annually. Trading activities contribute only a few million dollars in net revenue, while stablecoin services remain nascent. This composition matters significantly for long-term sustainability. Investors betting on BitGo are essentially wagering on whether the custody and staking franchise can continue compounding, with emerging business lines positioned as longer-term growth catalysts rather than near-term profit drivers.

The $18 pricing reflects a valuation structure that values this recurring revenue model appropriately—not pricing in speculative trading gains but acknowledging the stable annual earnings that custody and staking generate. This conservative yet growth-oriented approach differentiates BitGo from the more volatile valuations applied to trading-dependent platforms.

Can BitGo Sustain Growth in a Volatile Market Environment?

The critical question facing BitGo as it enters public markets is whether its core business can expand amid continued cryptocurrency price swings. VanEck’s Sigel believes the answer is yes, provided BitGo executes on growth targets. The custody and staking sectors have shown themselves capable of attracting institutional capital independent of token price performance—a structural advantage that less diversified platforms lack.

BitGo’s NYSE debut on Thursday opens a new chapter for digital asset custody as an institutional investment category. Whether the $2 billion valuation proves prescient depends on BitGo’s ability to grow custody and staking revenues while maintaining operational discipline. If the company achieves projected expansion, the year-over-year earnings potential embedded in the $18 price point could translate into meaningful shareholder returns—a proposition distinct from the speculative, cyclically-driven returns typical of crypto trading venues.

The market will be watching closely to see whether custody-focused revenue models can sustain a premium valuation in public markets, or whether crypto’s inherent volatility eventually dampens institutional enthusiasm even for the most stability-oriented platforms.