Ethereum's current price has rebounded from $2,803** to** $2,906, indicating a short-term rally after testing a key support level. The current trend results from intense competition between bullish and bearish factors.

📊 Current Core Bull and Bear Power Analysis

To give you a quick overview of the market landscape, here is the current comparison of major bullish and bearish forces:

🟢 Bullish Forces (Rebound Momentum)

· Whales continue buying: An off-chain whale has purchased over 70,000 ETH in 5 days (worth over $200 million), while exchange ETH reserves are decreasing, indicating long-term optimistic capital.
· Strong on-chain fundamentals: Ethereum active addresses hit a record high, with robust real usage demand, creating a bullish divergence with sideways price movement.
· Technical rebound demand: Previous price declines have pushed indicators into the “oversold” zone, indicating a technical need for a rebound correction.

🔴 Bearish Forces (Downward Pressure)

· ETF funds significantly outflow: Last week, global crypto ETPs saw outflows of $1.73 billion, with Ethereum ETFs outflowing $611 million, the largest weekly outflow since November 2025, creating substantial selling pressure.
· “Massive supply wall” suppression: The $3,490-$3,510 range contains approximately $4.1 billion in dense holdings, forming a huge resistance, which was the main reason for previous failed rebounds.
· Whales and early holders selling: Some whales bought high and sold low; another early whale, dormant for 9 years, transferred 50,000 ETH, suspected profit-taking, intensifying volatility.

📍 Updated Key Position References

Given the price rebound, key levels have also shifted upward:

· Immediate resistance: $2,920 - $2,950. The current price is within this zone; a successful breakout could test the next resistance at $3,000.
· Critical support: $2,840 - $2,860 and $2,773**. If it falls below** $2,860, it may threaten the weekly bullish structure; if the daily close drops below $2,773, a downtrend could be confirmed, leading to deeper corrections.

💡 Comprehensive Strategy Perspective

Operational considerations at current levels require more nuanced weighing:

Short-term rebound play

· Approach: Light positions near support zones, attempting to capitalize on technical rebounds.
· Key: Treat $2,840 - $2,860 as an important defense line; if broken, stop-loss is necessary. Initial rebound targets can be around $2,950.

Waiting for trend clarity

· Approach: Given the fierce bullish-bearish battle and unclear direction, it’s more suitable to wait and see.
· Key: Wait for a breakout above key levels. A confirmed move above $3,046** or** $3,180 may signal an end to correction; conversely, if it cannot break through $2,950** and falls below** $2,840, the downtrend may continue.

Long-term perspective

· Bearish risk: Bloomberg analysts believe that, amid stock market volatility, Ethereum’s risk of falling below $2,000 is higher than the possibility of returning to $4,000.
· Bullish potential: Some long-term technical analyses indicate that if a bullish ascending triangle pattern on the monthly chart confirms, higher targets could be seen in 2026. However, this requires time to validate.

✍️ Summary and Core Focus

In summary, the current market contradiction involves positive on-chain fundamentals and whale buying fighting against ETF outflows and massive technical resistance.

For traders, the core decision logic is:

1. Risk Identification: The current market is mainly driven by capital flows (ETF outflows) and technical resistance (supply walls), rather than on-chain fundamentals.
2. Positioning: $2,906** is in a short-term “battle zone,” with initial resistance at **$2,920-2,950** and key support at $2,840-2,860.
3. Direction Confirmation: The market is in a weak rebound pattern in the short term; observing price behavior near key levels is crucial to determine which force will prevail. #感谢关注︱互动︱评论︱转发