#加密市场观察 Market Analysis Today

The current market is in an extremely absurd "binary opposition": on one side, the US government is like a leaky sieve, not only having its wallet private keys stolen by the contractor’s son, but even its government functions (face of governance) are on the verge of shutting down due to the shutdown drama; on the other side, the financial mainstream represented by MicroStrategy and South American pension funds is stitching Bitcoin into the framework of global capital in an unprecedented manner. In simple terms, we are experiencing a "dual handover of power and credit."
What is most lamentable is the truth revealed by ZachXBT: $40 million in government assets were stolen because the contractor’s executive responsible for asset seizure failed to manage his son properly. This is not only a security vulnerability but also the greatest irony of "centralized custody." While Washington is embroiled in disputes over the budget plan, causing the probability of government shutdown on Polymarket to soar to 78%, the crypto market is actually paying for this systemic decay. The recent Bitcoin sell-off is less about failed risk hedging and more about the market preemptively hedging against the chaos of dollar liquidity.
Interestingly, prediction markets have now become a more accurate "truth machine" than mainstream media, with capital voting with their feet much faster than press releases. But the signals behind this are not all bearish.
The real highlight is MicroStrategy’s "financial alchemy." Michael Saylor’s idea of a "perpetual preferred stock" model essentially aims to transform the $8 billion convertible bond pressure into an almost perpetual capital leverage. This is an extremely hardcore financial innovation, meaning Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets is no longer just a "speculative asset," but a credit cornerstone that can be continuously leveraged, even without the need to repay principal.
Adding to this, the entry of Colombia’s second-largest pension fund sends a clear signal: established capital has seen through the fragility of the fiat system. They are willing to endure Bitcoin’s volatility rather than bear the systemic risk of a fiat system shutdown. As for Foundry USA’s hash rate dropping 60% due to a snowstorm and the collapse of a16z-backed Entropy, these are more like pains in the process of industry "shedding falsehoods and preserving truths." The fragility of the physical world (power grid) and the exit of startups actually reveal who the real infrastructure is.
Wood (Cathie Wood) is increasing positions in Cb and Circle against the trend at this juncture, betting that after this chaos, only compliant and systemically important crypto companies will survive.
Ultimately, while this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell’s statements are important, they are just short-term "noise." The true main thread is: the old power centers (government and traditional custody) are showing signs of fatigue, even unable to guarantee basic security; meanwhile, the new digital financial order is gradually replacing the old world through Saylor-style debt restructuring and pension infiltration. Don’t be scared by the short-term shutdown risks—true hardcore investors are watching those big players who are reshaping the rules.