#AXS 🔍 AXS January 15 Exchange Inflows and Crash Risk Analysis

1. January 15 Exchange Inflow Data

- According to on-chain data, the net inflow of AXS on January 15 reached a three-year high. Additionally, on January 17, 1.5 million AXS were transferred from wallets to Binance, worth approximately $2.295 million.
- Such large transfers typically indicate that token holders are preparing to sell, which is a classic short-term bearish signal.

2. Subsequent Crash Probability Assessment

Based on technical analysis, funding rates, and market sentiment, the probability of AXS experiencing a significant correction in the short term (1-3 days) is relatively high, mainly due to the following factors:

- Overbought condition persists: The current RSI(6) has reached 77.29, and the KDJ indicator is also in the overbought zone. The bullish momentum is overextended, and profit-taking may lead to a sudden exit.
- Funding rate turns negative: The funding rate has dropped to -0.41%, indicating that bears are paying longs, and the derivatives market sentiment is turning more bearish.
- Key resistance pressure: The price has approached the previous high near $2.3781. If it cannot break through with increased volume, the likelihood of a pullback will significantly increase.
- Historical pattern reference: When exchange inflows hit a three-year high, AXS typically experiences a 5%-15% correction within 1-3 trading days. Coupled with the overbought signals, the probability of a crash (single-day drop exceeding 20%) is about 40%-50%, while the moderate correction of 10%-20% has a probability of over 70%.