Can XRP Rally to $12.50 by 2028? Here's What the Numbers Say

Market Reality Check: XRP’s Current Struggle

The cryptocurrency landscape has been turbulent recently, with XRP facing particular headwinds. At $1.90, the token has declined 35.61% over the past year—a steeper drop than many of its peers. This underperformance reflects broader market uncertainty and the unwinding of leveraged positions, yet some Wall Street strategists believe a significant recovery could be ahead.

Geoffrey Kendrick, a senior analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, has put forward a bullish thesis: XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028, representing roughly 560% upside from current levels. But what’s driving this optimistic forecast? Let’s break it down.

The Utility Argument: Cross-Border Payments Without the Friction

At its core, XRP operates on the Ripple ledger—a blockchain architected specifically for fast, low-cost international transactions. Ripple positions itself as an alternative to the aging SWIFT system, which processes over $150 trillion in annual global transfers but often involves 3-5 day settlement times and substantial intermediary fees.

The pitch is compelling: XRP’s settlement is near-instantaneous with minimal transaction costs. Ripple’s CEO has suggested the blockchain could eventually handle 14% of SWIFT’s annual volume, translating to $20+ trillion in annual throughput. That scale would theoretically generate enormous demand for the asset.

However, there’s a practical obstacle here. Volatility and cryptocurrency price fluctuations create friction when used as a settlement medium. To address this, Ripple introduced Ripple USD (RLUSD), a stablecoin, in December 2024. Yet adoption metrics haven’t been compelling—XRP’s on-chain transaction volume actually contracted over the past twelve months rather than expanding.

Kendrick’s perspective remains constructive: “XRP occupies a unique position within digital assets’ fastest-growing segment: cross-border and cross-currency transactions.” He believes broader institutional adoption will eventually materialize, even if current traction appears limited.

The ETF Catalyst: Institutional Capital Unlocked

The more concrete near-term catalyst emerged in November when the SEC began approving spot XRP ETFs. Six funds now trade on U.S. exchanges, including the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), which carries an expense ratio of 0.19%—significantly cheaper than transaction fees from traditional cryptocurrency platforms.

This structural change matters. Institutional investors managing roughly $147 trillion in assets have historically faced friction accessing cryptocurrencies directly. Spot ETFs eliminate account fragmentation and reduce operational complexity. Kendrick estimates first-year inflows into spot XRP ETFs could range from $4 billion to $8 billion.

For context: spot XRP ETFs accumulated $1.4 billion in net inflows during their debut two-month period—a respectable start, though notably slower than spot Bitcoin ETFs, which reached the same milestone in under one month.

The Skeptic’s Counter-View: Why $12.50 May Be Overambitious

While Kendrick’s analysis contains merit, some critical questions remain unanswered. Stablecoins already solve the volatility problem more elegantly than volatile cryptographic assets. Will financial institutions really prefer XRP when alternatives exist?

On the RLUSD front, displacing entrenched stablecoin leaders will be extraordinarily difficult given network effects and institutional relationships already built elsewhere. The payment thesis, while theoretically sound, hasn’t translated into explosive on-chain activity yet.

As for spot ETF demand: yes, institutional capital will likely flow into digital assets broadly. But will it concentrate in XRP, or will allocators prioritize Bitcoin and other mega-cap cryptocurrencies?

What Investors Should Consider

Kendrick’s $12.50 target assumes sustained institutional adoption of both XRP’s payment layer and ETF vehicles. That’s a multiyear narrative requiring multiple catalysts to align. The current price of $1.90 reflects substantial skepticism about near-term adoption, and market participants should weigh both the bull case and the structural headwinds before deciding on position sizing.