Weekly Commodity Surge Led by Strong Soybean Momentum

Soybean futures rallied to close Friday with broad-based strength, posting gains of 4 to 5 cents across major contract months, though March futures showed more modest weekly performance, declining just 4 ¾ cents. The national cash market reflected this momentum, with bean prices rising 5 1/4 cents to reach $9.87 1/4, indicating solid underlying demand in key districts.

Soymeal Reaches Notable Up 80 Cent Weekly Gains Amid Strength

The standout performer in the complex came from soymeal futures, which up 80 cents at the $2.40 level despite March contract weakness of $13.70 for the week. This divergence between front and back months suggests mixed signals regarding near-term versus forward demand expectations. Soy oil futures, meanwhile, retreated 18 to 36 points during the session, though cumulative weekly performance showed resilience with a 292-point advance.

Trader Positioning Shifts as Specs Reduce Net Long Exposure

The Commitment of Traders report released Friday afternoon revealed significant repositioning among speculative traders. These participants cut their net long positions by 44,756 contracts in soybean futures and options, bringing holdings down to 12,961 contracts as of January 13th. This reduction signals trader caution heading into the market’s pause for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday, with trading resuming Monday evening.

Export Performance Lags as Shipment Pace Falls Behind Schedule

Export sales data paints a concerning picture for U.S. soybean sellers. Total commitments stand at 30.637 MMT as of January 8th, running 25% below the comparable 2025 timeframe and representing just 71% of the USDA’s projection—a shortfall of 15 percentage points versus normal pace. Actual accumulated shipments of 17.984 MMT tell an even more troubling story, reaching only 42% of the USDA estimate and lagging substantially behind the historical 60% average pace for this period.

Brazilian Supply Adjustments Shape Market Outlook

Recent reassessments of the Brazilian harvest provided some relief to sentiment. Safras raised its crop estimate by 0.52 MMT to 179.28 MMT following Thursday’s updates from private forecasters, offering modest reassurance on global supply availability despite U.S. export challenges.

Closing Prices Summary:

• Mar 26 Soybeans: $10.57 ¾, up 4 ¾ cents
• Nearby Cash Beans: $9.87 ¼, up 5 ¼ cents
• May 26 Soybeans: $10.68 ¾, up 4 ½ cents
• Jul 26 Soybeans: $10.81 ¼, up 5 cents