Bitcoin options expiration is imminent: Can $23.7B trading volume drive a market breakout

This Friday marks the upcoming year-end options expiration, a historic moment that could reshape Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. According to the latest market data, options contracts totaling $23.7 billion are counting down, including approximately 3 million BTC options and 4.46 million IBIT options contracts. Can this liquidity drought event bring the price volatility traders expect?

Three Key Numbers for Options Expiration Day

Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $89.61K, still some distance from the maximum pain point at $95,000. Market structure shows that the $85,000 and $100,000 levels have the most concentrated options positions, forming a strong magnetic center. More notably, the Put/Call ratio is only 0.38, indicating an absolute dominance of bullish traders and creating significant short-term rebound opportunities for bears.

According to QCP Capital, the year-end holiday effect is further diluting market liquidity. As traders close positions and go on vacation, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum both declines. It is expected that before the year’s end, the market may experience price swings of 5%-7%.

Where Is the Balance of Power Between Bulls and Bears?

Industry opinions tend to believe that Bitcoin is likely to decline first and then rebound. From the liquidation heatmap, the $82,000-$84,000 range is densely packed with leveraged positions, which could serve as an initial downward testing point. The subsequent rebound will face the $90,000 “false ceiling,” and breaking through this level will trigger a true rebound signal. Ultimately, the $95,000 maximum pain point is expected to become the focus of this cycle — it is both the dream price for options bulls and the last line of defense for bears.

It is worth noting that Ethereum’s performance during the same period is even weaker, with a 24-hour decline of -6.77%, indicating that in an environment of large liquidity withdrawal, market risk appetite is rapidly diminishing.

Volatility Traps Under Holiday Effect

Historical data shows that price spikes caused by low liquidity during Christmas week often quickly retreat after the market reopens. This year, the critical point of tax-loss harvesting on December 31 could intensify such irrational volatility. The sparse order book means that any moderate capital flow could trigger extreme price movements, raising the bar for position management.

Core Predictions

• The upcoming $23.7 billion options contracts represent the largest single expiration event of the year
• Bitcoin may first drop to $82,000-$84,000 for support, then rebound toward the $95,000 maximum pain point
• Weak performance of Ethereum suggests funds may be reallocating among risk assets
• Holiday liquidity drought could serve as a contrarian indicator for short-term forecasts — seemingly certain price targets often encounter unexpected reversals