Bitcoin Breaks Historical Bear Cycle Patterns with Renewed Strength

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated a striking departure from established bear market behavior, trading around $90.20K with a notable resilience that defies traditional technical breakdown patterns. Rather than cascading liquidations and panic selling witnessed in previous cycles, BTC has maintained support above critical moving average thresholds while consolidating within increasingly tighter ranges—a dynamic that fundamentally reshapes conventional bearish forecasts.

Why Historical Bear Signals Are Failing This Time

The past three major bear cycles—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed a predictable playbook: Bitcoin would first crack below its 100-week simple and exponential moving averages, triggering a cascade of forced liquidations and 40-55% drawdowns within short timeframes. These technical crosses weren’t mere warnings; they marked the capitulation phase where weaker market participants were systematically flushed out.

Yet as 2025 concluded, Bitcoin refused to follow this script. Despite approaching conditions that would have triggered classic bear crosses historically, the digital asset held firm above levels that had crumbled in previous downturns. The anticipated selling wave never materialized, signaling underlying strength rather than weakness. When widely-respected bearish indicators fail to produce their historical consequences, it typically reveals genuine demand absorption at current levels rather than exhaustion.

This isn’t confirmation of an aggressive bull market taking hold, but rather validation that one of crypto’s most reliable bearish triggers has been structurally invalidated—at least for this cycle.

Technical Landscape: Short-Term Risks and Opportunities

From a near-term perspective, momentum remains stretched. The recent breakout from a symmetric triangle pattern on the four-hour chart propelled Bitcoin toward $90,500, where both RSI and Stochastic RSI entered overbought zones. This elevation in momentum indicators suggests profit-taking could emerge, potentially pushing prices back toward $89,500—a zone likely to attract fresh accumulation if tested.

However, maintaining position above $90,500 and the triangle’s former descending trendline would signal extended strength. In that scenario, price discovery could target the $93,000–$93,650 range, establishing a more durable technical foundation as the market transitions into 2026.

For a meaningful 40% correction to unfold, Bitcoin would need to breach multiple consecutive support structures—first falling below the 100-week moving averages on a weekly basis, then decisively losing recently established demand zones. Currently, neither condition exists, leaving downside scenarios requiring layered breakdowns rather than single-event capitulation.

Current Market Snapshot: Bitcoin is trading at $90.20K, reflecting a -3.36% pullback over the last 24 hours—modest volatility consistent with consolidation behavior rather than directional conviction.