$XAUT Under what circumstances does gold prices rise while real estate depreciates?

Generally, when does this occur?
Gold prices tend to rise and real estate values decline during the late to decline stages of a dynasty, especially in times of social unrest, economic crises, monetary system chaos, or just before regime changes. This phenomenon can be analyzed from the perspectives of historical cycle laws and political economy, specifically corresponding to the following stages:
1. Late Dynasty Period: Social Contradictions Intensify
· Severe land annexation: The privileged classes concentrate land, causing farmers to go bankrupt and become displaced, leading to a relative decline in land-based property (such as farmland and houses), especially for commoners.
· Fiscal crisis and currency devaluation: The government may over-issue copper coins or paper money to fill fiscal deficits, triggering inflation. People shift to holding gold as a safe haven, driving up gold prices.
· Example: During the late Ming Dynasty, large amounts of silver flowed in, but land taxes remained heavy, causing volatile land and house prices in the Jiangnan region, while demand for gold as a hard currency increased.
2. Decline Phase of the Dynasty: Pre-War and Turmoil
· Social unrest and security concerns: Before internal wars, external threats, or peasant uprisings erupt, physical assets (like real estate) depreciate due to the risks of conflict, while gold, being portable and easy to hide, becomes a safe haven asset.
· Collapse of credit systems: Commercial networks break down, making real estate difficult to liquidate, and the monetary role of gold becomes prominent.
· Example: After the Anshi Rebellion during the Tang Dynasty, the northern economy declined, and property values in Chang'an and Luoyang shrank, with precious metals becoming the main medium of exchange.
3. Regime Change or End of Dynasty
· Collapse of monetary systems: Old regime currencies lose credibility (e.g., paper money becomes worthless), and markets revert to trading precious metals like gold and silver, causing gold prices to soar.
· Forced property restructuring: During the early stages of new regimes, land is often confiscated and redistributed to weaken old elites, leading to revaluation of existing property systems.
· Example: During the late Qing Dynasty, amidst the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom movement, many properties in the Jiangnan region were destroyed, while gold trading in Shanghai's concessions was active, pushing gold prices higher.
Underlying Political and Economic Logic
· Rising gold prices reflect a loss of confidence in the regime and monetary system, with gold serving as a store of value across dynastic cycles.
· Property depreciation indicates the collapse of land revenue systems (such as agricultural bankruptcy, tax plunder, or security risks), with its value highly dependent on social stability and institutional guarantees.
Summary
This combined phenomenon (gold rising, real estate falling) is most typical near the turning point from prosperity to decline in a dynasty, signaling a forced shift from a “land-based” to a “precious metal-based” monetary system, and serving as an important indicator of systemic crises.
Of course, I am talking about history; this cannot be directly applied to the present.