## Bitcoin on the Edge: What to Expect Before the End of Q1 2026

With Bitcoin trading at $90.48K (down -2.76% in 24 hours) and the historic level of $126.08K as a reference, the market is at a critical inflection point. As we move toward 2026, uncertainty dominates conversations among traders and institutional investors. Rebound to new highs or prolonged consolidation? The answer remains elusive.

## On-chain signals warn for caution

Technical indicators paint a scenario that warrants careful attention. According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin fell below its annual moving average in November 2025, a move that has historically coincided with bear markets. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, emphasizes that the slowdown observed in the Realized Market Value indicator evokes previous periods of weakness in the cycle.

Another concerning factor comes from U.S. spot ETFs. The decrease in net institutional capital inflows over recent weeks suggests that large investors are maintaining a defensive stance. This phenomenon could translate into sustained pressure on prices in the short term, complicating any immediate bullish scenario.

## The optimistic camp sticks to its bet

Despite cautious signals, an influential group of managers and analysis firms hold a more constructive view. VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase argue that Bitcoin could experience a significant rally toward 2026, with targets close to $150,000.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, is particularly emphatic: the Relative Unrealized Gain indicator (RUP) is still far from critical levels, and the market cycle has not peaked. Beyond that, both Bitwise and VanEck propose a provocative thesis: the four-year cycle that has traditionally governed Bitcoin may have lost relevance. If this is true, BTC could move more in line with U.S. tech markets, which would reduce the severity of bear markets or even avoid them altogether.

## Institutional skepticism also carries weight

However, figures like Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, maintain a more reserved stance. Timmer identifies a critical level at $65,000: if Bitcoin falls below this threshold, the risk of retreating to $45,000 becomes present. His perspective suggests that Bitcoin could stagnate sideways for months, building strength for a subsequent bullish attack.

## The outlook for 2026: inevitable volatility

The dichotomy between cautious on-chain data and optimistic institutional narratives makes one thing clear: the path to 2026 will depend more on macroeconomic dynamics and institutional behaviors than on predetermined cyclical schemes. The current uncertainty reflects this unresolved tension.

For traders, the lesson is straightforward: avoid betting exclusively on a single scenario. Volatility seems inevitable in the upcoming period, and strategic prudence must prevail over irrational optimism.