Solana (SOL) at $128.96: how to unlock the locked cycle while Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate in 2026

The Breakout Challenge: SOL Between Consolidation and Opportunity

Solana continues to move within a critical zone. With the current price holding at $128.96 (down 3.81% in the last 24 hours), the token is trapped between two crucial levels: the weekly resistance at $145–$150 and the dynamic support of the 200-week moving average around $120. This compression is not accidental—it’s the setup that precedes a significant move.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin tested but did not hold the critical resistance at $90,500, currently trading at $90.51K, while Ethereum remains below $3,000 (now quoted at $3.05K). In this overall market consolidation context, Solana is telling a different story.

Capital is Rotating Towards Solana: Flows Tell All

Capital flow data reveal an interesting dynamic. While products linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum have recorded weekly net outflows according to CoinShares, products on Solana mark the third consecutive week of modest but consistent inflows.

This is not a broad risk-on return—it’s a tactical rotation. During end-of-cycle consolidation periods, smart capital seeks assets with momentum but not yet crowded. Solana embodies exactly this profile: visible accumulation without the hype of a widespread speculative rush.

On-chain: Liquidity on Solana Surpasses All Previous Records

On-chain numbers say even more. According to aggregated data, the spot volume of DEXes on Solana has reached $2.3 trillion since the beginning of the year. This is not the volume of a single platform but the cumulative decentralized trading activity driven by retail participation and memecoin dynamics.

Although centralized exchanges still dominate global volumes, the scale of decentralized liquidity on Solana highlights the network’s increasingly central role as a leading trading hub. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) remains near high levels, signaling accumulation rather than distribution.

Technical Analysis: Weekly Compression Leading to Breakout

From a technical perspective, the weekly chart of SOL reveals a well-defined ascending structure. The price consolidates just above the 200-week EMA ($121), a support that has repeatedly held during corrections since 2023. At the same time, the historical upward trendline continues to support recent lows.

The resistance at $145–$150 remains the main obstacle. Here, the price has faced multiple weekly rejections, creating a compression setup with rising lows pressing against long-term supply. This setup is classic: the longer the price remains compressed, the more explosive the breakout will be.

A weekly close above $150 would confirm the structural setup. This move would open the path toward $180–$200, unlocking the cycle currently blocked. Conversely, a decisive break below $120 would shift the bias downward, exposing the price to supports at $95–$100.

The Scenario for Early 2026: Realistic but Not Guaranteed

Can Solana reach $150 by early 2026? The answer depends less on narrative and more on price confirmation in the coming days.

As long as SOL stays above the rising trendline and the 200-week EMA, the overall structure remains constructive and downside risk limited. However, $145–$150 remains a significant supply zone where sellers regularly intervene.

The decisive move is not a matter of “if” but of “when.” A weekly close above $150, followed by buyer acceptance, would mark the true structural breakout and significantly increase the likelihood of continuing toward higher levels. Until then, Solana will probably continue the tactical consolidation characteristic of the year-end market.

In summary: $150 it is reachable, but only with price confirmation. Not before.