Bitcoin at $90,580: The Whales Control the Game While the Market Remains Susceptible to Drastic Movements

This week, the cryptocurrency markets are in a critical phase. Bitcoin, currently trading at $90,580 with a 2.33% decline in the last 24 hours, remains stuck in a zone of extreme volatility. Analysts observe conflicting signals: on one side, technical indicators favoring the bulls, and on the other, concerning on-chain flows suggesting selling pressure. The question troubling traders is whether the crucial support at $85,000 will hold or if we will see a deeper correction.

Massive Whale Activity: A Warning Sign

Blockchain data tell a troubling story. Over the past seven days, approximately $4.75 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum have flowed into major exchanges. This is not a routine transfer: it potentially signals coordinated selling or the opening of short positions.

When whales transfer their cryptocurrencies to exchanges, they make their assets immediately available for liquidation. Unlike Bitcoin stored in cold wallets, these balances on trading platforms can be sold instantly, amplifying downward pressure. Market analysts know well that this dynamic often precedes significant price movements.

The concentration of assets on exchanges creates three direct consequences:

• Immediate increase in available selling pressure
• Possibility of large coordinated operations
• Potential trigger for chain liquidations in derivatives markets

Despite Bitcoin’s recent appreciation, sentiment among large investors remains cautious. This contrast between the historical price performance and the behavior of major holders generates uncertainty among market participants.

Technical Analysis vs. On-Chain Reality: An Unresolved Conflict

Bitcoin is moving within a critical resistance range between $92,000 and $94,000, although today’s price stands at $90,580. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to favor buyers, suggesting bullish momentum from a purely technical perspective. However, this signal is contradicted by blockchain data.

The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, providing insights into market momentum. When RSI remains high without the price breaking out, it creates a dangerous divergence: indicators say “buy” while capital flows say “sell.”

This divergence makes Bitcoin susceptible to the meaning of “exposed to conflicting dynamics” — the market becomes vulnerable to impulsive movements in both directions depending on which force prevails.

On-Chain Indicators Reveal True Selling Pressure

On-chain analysis does not look at price charts but examines actual investor behavior through blockchain data. Metrics such as:

• Exchange Net Flow: Current inflows exceed outflows, indicating more aggressive sellers
• Whale Transaction Count: A significant increase in large transactions (>$100,000)
• Realized Profit/Loss: Many investors are realizing profits at current levels
• MVRV Ratio: Suggests a potential short-term overvaluation

These metrics paint a consistent picture: the market is ripe for a correction. It’s not a certainty, but a high probability that traders must consider in their risk management strategies.

Critical Levels: Where to Watch Now

Bitcoin’s price structure remains intact despite today’s bearish reaction. The most important support level remains at $85,000, which represents more than just a round number:

Key Level Analysis:

The $85,000 level is psychologically significant because it previously acted as resistance during Bitcoin’s initial ascent and later transformed into support. This change of role is crucial: when a level shifts from obstacle to protection, it attracts buy orders.

If Bitcoin drops to this support, traders will see multiple re-entry opportunities. However, if it falls below, the next support is significantly lower at $78,000.

Liquidation Dynamics: The Hidden Risk

In derivatives markets (futures and perpetuals), liquidations are a risk often underestimated. Currently, there is a notable concentration of liquidity around $94,000 and $85,000. When the price reaches these levels, many leveraged positions become unprofitable and are forcibly liquidated.

Failing to break above $94,000 could trigger long position liquidations, accelerating the downward move. Conversely, a decline to $85,000 would likely liquidate many over-leveraged short positions. This domino effect amplifies price movements in both directions, creating explosive volatility.

For retail investors, this dynamic means one thing: risk management is not optional during these periods.

Institutional Influence Changes the Game

Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin today is held by traditional financial institutions, hedge funds, and public companies. These actors employ sophisticated risk management strategies and longer-term horizons compared to retail traders.

This could mean two things during a correction:

• Possible stabilization of the downside due to buying at lower prices
• Potential amplification of volatility if institutions must adhere to strict risk limits

Market structure has become more complex, but Bitcoin remains susceptible to traditional psychological and technical patterns. Round levels and historical resistances continue to matter greatly.

What to Watch Now

Investors should pay attention to:

• Exchange Flows: Is Bitcoin continuing to flow out of traders or are inflows increasing (selling)?
• Liquidation Levels: How many longs are being liquidated during declines?
• Trading Volumes: Is the downward movement accompanied by high or low volume?
• Institutional Positioning: Are institutions accumulating on the dip?
• Macroeconomic News: Interest rate decisions, inflation data, regulatory developments

These interconnected factors determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

The Verdict: Cautious Short-Term Pessimism

Bitcoin at $90,580 shows signs of weakness despite favorable technical indicators. The combination of on-chain selling pressure, massive whale activity, and indicator divergence suggests a new test of the $85,000 support in the coming days or weeks.

However, Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition remains intact. Corrections are normal in financial markets, and this could present an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

For traders, the message is clear: protecting capital is the top priority. Investors should closely monitor the $85,000 support and be ready to react if it is broken. Meanwhile, any attempt to rebound toward $94,000 remains a significant resistance to test.

The market remains susceptible to shocks and impulsive movements. Volatility is expected to stay elevated until a new equilibrium zone is reached.